Skip to main content

JP Morgan: India's lowest growth in 5 years, 5.8%, worrying; recovery may be slow

Commenting on India’s January-March 2019 GDP growth, which "surprised sharply to the downside, printing at a 5-year low of 5.8%", JP Morgan, the American multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in New York City, has said that it has not just "dragged down full-year growth also to a five-year low of 6.8%".
It underlines, "The GDP undershoot reinforces the discernable slowdown that is currently underway. Growth has largely been flying on one engine in recent years – private consumption – and that has gotten progressively exhausted."
Worse, in its commentary, authored by Sajjid Z Chinoy and Toshi Jain, who are with the top MNC's
Emerging Markets Asia Economic and Policy Research wing, say, even this is "buffeted by sustained rural distress and a significant tightening of financial conditions amongst the Non Bank Financial Companies (NBFC), which have largely been financing consumption."
Continue the JP Morgan experts, as for public investment, it suffers from "lack of fiscal space with the total public sector borrowing requirement rising to almost 9% of GDP", and while exports bounced back strongly in 2018-19, they "are likely to slow meaningfully as global uncertainty rises (especially after the US has opened up a second flank in its trade war) and global growth momentum slows."
Giving figures on how Gross Value Added in agriculture and industry have been going down over the last one year, JP Morgan predicts, "Slowing consumption growth at home along with a cloudy outlook for exports, creates the worrying prospect of some hysteresis and suggests growth is likely to recover only slowly in the coming quarters."

Comments

TRENDING

Anti-CAA protest in Lucknow: Notice to rights lawyer, ex-IPS to pay up Rs 64 lakh

Uttar Pradesh-based human rights sdvocate Mohammad Shoaib, who is also state president of the Socialist Party (India), retired Indian Police Services (IPS) officer SR Darapuri, a rights campaigner, and others accused of “instigating violence” during protests against Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Lucknow, have been served notices for recovery of Rs 64,37,637, threatened with seizure of property in the event of non-payment within a week.

Gujarat class 10 board results show 'sharp decline' in education level: RTE Forum

The Right to Education (RTE) Forum has regretted that the results of the class 10 Gujarat board examinations suggest a sharp decline in the level of education in Gujarat, with only 60.64% students having passed, which is 6.33% lower than the previous year. Also, this year, only 1,671 students passed with A-1 grade, whereas last year’s figure was 4,974 students.

Industry group seeking to 'hide' effluent discharge point of South Gujarat river?

Following a video taken by well-known environmentalist Rohit Prajapati taken from Vishala bridge in Ahmedabad, and published in Counterview, showing how untreated effluent is being discharged into Sabarmati river, efforts appear to have begun to “cover-up” such discharge points by allegedly seeking to hide the top spots of discharge points.

No city govt 'controls' all 18 functions as per 74th Constitutional amendment

A senior expert has revealed that despite more than a quarter of a century of the 74th Constitutional Amendment Act, which mandated setting up and devolution of powers to Urban local bodies (ULBs) or city governments are not abiding by its provisions. The Act, said Dr Soumyadip Chattopadhyay, senior fellow, Impact and Policy Research Institute (IMPRI) and associate professor, Viswa Bharti University, mandates 18 principles be followed by the city government. “But not a single city government has control over all 18 functions”, he regretted.

Delhi faces healthcare facilities crisis, funds crunch: IMPRI seminar told

Participating in a web policy talk conducted by the Impact and Policy Research Institute (IMPRI), Delhi, speakers have pointed towards lack of healthcare facilities and funds crunch among major difficulties the national capital has been facing following the Covid-19 crisis, which led the Government of India to impose lockdown.

US religious freedom report to have 'serious consequences' for Indian business

The Washington DC-based Centre for Pluralism even as welcoming the recent United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) report, released by the US Department of the State (DOS), agreeing with the suggestion on the need for “penalties” against Union home minister Amit Shah, “the man behind the violations.”

Draft environmental notification suggests Govt of India's 'regressive' mindset

Top Gujarat environmentalist Rohit Prajapati, taking strong exception to the draft Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) notification, 2020, has demanded that, in view of its proposed “regressive changes” amidst Covid-19 crisis, the EIA notification should be immediately withdrawn and not implemented at all. The deadline for public comments for the notification ended on June 30.

As migrants return, Bihar likely to face crisis in child education: RTE Forum convenor

The Right to Education (RTE) Forum convener Ambarish Rai has warned that following the in-migration of lakhs of people working in other states, Bihar faces a major crisis in the form of a sharp rise in child labour, child marriage, and child trafficking. The girl child education is likely to be affected the most, he added.

NHRC 'disposes of' complaint on dismissal of Amreli's 176 sanitary workers

The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has disposed of the complaint made by a Gujarat Dalit rights activist, Kantilal Parmar, who had sought action against the authorities, which had allegedly dismissing 176 sanitary workers of Saurashtra region’s Amreli municipality a year ago. It asked the state’s principal secretary, labour and employment, to take “necessary” action.