सीधे मुख्य सामग्री पर जाएं

Economic Survey 2021-22: Would govt be able to handle rising unemployment?


By Priyanka Saharia, Dr. Prashant Kumar Choudhary*
India releases its economic survey 2021-22 on 31st Jan, 2022 and brings a new dimension to it by adopting agile approach to policy making and tracking development through satellite images and cartography. Survey estimates that India will register real GDP growth rate of 9.2 percent for the fiscal year 2021-22. It predicts that agriculture, industry and service sector is expected to grow by 3.9, 11.8 and 8.2 per cent respectively which were 3.6, -7.0 and -8.4 per cent in 2020-21. It further predicts India will witness a real GDP growth rate of 8-8.5 percent in FY23’ which is below the prediction of World Bank (8.7%) and International Monetary Fund (9%).
Economic survey 2021-22 mentions that most of the macroeconomic indicators are strong. India’s foreign exchange reserves remained unaffected by COVID-19. According to RBI, on 31st December, 2021 foreign exchange reserve pegs at $634bn which is more than sufficient for merchandise imports for next 13 months. Country’s CPI inflation stands at 5.6 per cent Y-o-Y in December 2021 which is under tolerable band. Annual real growth in demand side of GDP and its components are also expected to recover from pandemic. Total consumption and gross fixed capital formation are expected to rise up to 7.0 percent (from -7.3 per cent of the year 2020-21), and 15.0 (from -10.8 per cent for the year 2020-21) respectively. India’s gross fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP remains a matter of concern and it is as high as 10 percentage of GDP which is 2 percentages higher than the period of global financial crisis, 2008.
Recovery from pandemic is also reflected in terms of higher tax collection including both direct and indirect taxes from April to November, 2021. State has collected 7 lac crores (in INR) direct tax and 8.2 lac crore indirect tax which is way higher than the 4.3 lac crore direct tax and 5.9 lac crore indirect tax in previous year’s quarter of the same period.
As the macroeconomic indicator shows strong sign of economic recovery and is reaching the pre-pandemic level, India is still falling short of 12% than the real GDP growth rate if the pandemic was not there. Economic recovery of 2021-22 is subject to the base. Indian economy is recovering but from a low base of pandemic. Manufacturing growth has also touched a bit above pre pandemic level but it is falling short of 24% than the normal growth.
Economic survey 2021-22 also states that government’s spending on social services has increased significantly during pandemic but expenditure on social services as a percentage to GDP in education sector witnessed a jump by very small margin i.e., 2.8 percent to 3.1 percent. Learning loss of students due to pandemic has become a major challenge in education in India, especially for children from marginalized communities. To protect students from COVID-19, schools and colleges were closed repeatedly in the last two years. Online learning became most prominent and safest mode of learning. However, huge digital divide created hurdles for students to have access to education. Two years of discontinuity in education, India might witness a sharp increase in dropout rate and gender gap in Indian schools and colleges. However, recovery from these challenges remains unknown as Economic survey 2021-22 covers only pre-pandemic data till 2019-20. To bridge the gap and compensate this loss, India should increase its spending on education and create active awareness program to bring children back to schools.
Economic survey 2021-22 shows that as per the periodic labor force survey data up to March 2021, employment affected by COVID-19 in urban sector has recovered to pre-pandemic level. To provide necessary safety net to rural unorganized labor, allocation of funds to MNREGA has also increased. However, recent CMIE data has shown in December, 2021 unemployment rate touches four month high with 7.91 percentages (urban unemployment -9.30%, rural unemployment- 7.28%). In January, 2022 unemployment rate has fallen to 6.57 but urban unemployment rate is higher than rural unemployment rate (urban unemployment rate 8.16 %, rural unemployment rate 5.84 %). Unemployment rate was all time high in May, 2021 with 11.84% (urban unemployment rate 14.72 percent and rural unemployment 10.55 percent).
One of the biggest concerns which stems from the survey is, whether this projected growth is tenable during the pandemic knowing the fact that it is not over yet. As it seems, the economy might need some months to recover fully from its impact on a condition that new variant of Corona does not force another economy standstill. The expected growth might depend much on whether market is ready to invest more during pandemic and people have the buying capacity. We have already witnessed that during the pandemic, several companies’ (manufacturing, services etc.) sales went down drastically which resulted into layoffs of employees and that contributed to high unemployment in the country. The market needs to show confidence in the measures taken up the government such as Credit guarantee scheme for MSME sectors or PLI schemes for 13 key sectors so as to invest more to achieve the projected growth by the government. Additionally, banking sector is also showing signs of recovery as several of its indicators have increased positively in the months of April-November, 2021 such as bank credit growth (Y-o-Y), capital adequacy ratio etc. However, these indicators should be able to help the companies to get the loans from the banks and in turn invest back in the market.
The biggest worry however for the government would be to handle the rising unemployment issue exacerbated due to pandemic which hardly hit all the sectors and forced people to migrate back to their villages. According to several sources, there in definite strong rise of unemployed people in absolute numbers. It is pertinent for the government to deal with rising unemployment issue starting with filling up lacs of vacant posts in public sector such as railways, SSC, universities etc. This might help to the economy in the long run it would increase the purchasing power of the consumers, as essential factor to drive the economic growth of the country.

*Priyanka Saharia is Ph.D. Scholar, Centre for Economic Studies and Policy, Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Bangalore; Dr. Prashant Kumar Choudhary is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Kumaraguru College of Liberal Arts and Science, Coimbatore

टिप्पणियाँ

ट्रेंडिंग

दाँव उल्टा पड़ा: राहुल गांधी के रूप में हम एक साधारण इंसान को नायक होते देख रहे हैं

-  अमिता नीरव  संघ औऱ बीजेपी ने राहुल गाँधी पर जो सोचकर ‘इन्वेस्ट’ किया था, उसके परिणाम गंभीर रूप से नुकसानदेह आ रहे हैं। ये थोड़ी अटपटी बात लग सकती है, लेकिन सोचिएगा कि संघ और बीजेपी ने राहुल गाँधी को जितना गंभीरता से लिया, उनकी संभावनाओं को लेकर वे जितना श्योर थे, उतना तो खुद राहुल और कांग्रेस भी नहीं थी।

બે-રોકટોક રણ અભયારણ્ય વિસ્તારમાં માફિયાઓનું અન-અધિકૃત અને ગેર-કાયદેસર પ્રવૃત્તિઓ

- અગરિયા હિત રક્ષક મંચ  કચ્છના નાના રણમાં શિકારપૂર, કાનમેર રણ વિસ્તારમાં જમીન માફિયા જુથ વચ્ચેની આંધાધૂંધ ગોળીબાર થયો તેમાં એક વ્યક્તિ નો જીવ ગયો. આ ઘટનાથી ફરી એકવાર કચ્છના નાના રણની જમીન પર ગેરકાયદેસર કબજો કરી તેનો સોદો કરનારા જૂથો, ટોળીઓની વાત ચર્ચામાં આવી છે. 

हिंदी आलोचना जैसे पिछड़ चुके अनुशासन की जगह हिंदी वैचारिकी का विकास जरूरी

- प्रमोद रंजन*   भारतीय राजनीति में सांप्रदायिक व प्रतिक्रियावादी ताकतों को सत्ता तक पहुंचाने में हिंदी पट्टी का सबसे बड़ा योगदान है। इसका मुख्य कारण हिंदी-पट्टी में कार्यरत समाजवादी व जनपक्षधर हिरावल दस्ते का विचारहीन, अनैतिक और  प्रतिक्रियावादी होते जाना है। अगर हम उपरोक्त बातों को स्वीकार करते हैं, तो कुछ रोचक निष्कर्ष निकलते हैं। हिंदी-जनता और उसके हिरावल दस्ते को विचारहीन और प्रतिक्रियावादी बनने से रोकने की मुख्य ज़िम्मेदारी किसकी थी?

ગુજરાતના સ્થાપના દિવસે યાદ કરીએ ભારતના વિશ્વપ્રસિદ્ધ ગુજરાતી પુરાતત્વવિદ્ ને

- ગૌરાંગ જાની*  આજે કોઈ ગુજરાતી એ કલ્પના પણ ન કરી શકે કે વર્ષ ૧૮૩૯ માં જૂનાગઢમાં જન્મેલા એક ગુજરાતી વિશ્વ પ્રસિદ્ધ બની શકે! પણ આપણે એ ગુજરાતીને કદાચ વિસરી ગયા છીએ જેમણે ગિરનારના અશોક શિલાલેખને દોઢસો વર્ષ પૂર્વે ઉકેલી આપ્યો.આ વિદ્વાન એટલે ભગવાનલાલ ઈન્દ્રજી. ૭ નવેમ્બર, ૧૮૩૯ ના દિવસે જૂનાગઢના પ્રશ્નોરા નાગર બ્રાહ્મણ પરિવારમાં તેમનો જન્મ થયો હતો. જૂનાગઢના એ સમયે અંગ્રેજી શિક્ષણની સગવડ ન હોવાને કારણે તેમને અંગ્રેજી ભાષાનું જ્ઞાન ન હતું પણ પાછળથી તેમણે ખપ પૂરતું અંગ્રેજી જાણી લીધું હતું.

राम के महल में आग लगाता हनुमान: चर्चित सोशल मीडिया इनफ्लुएंसर दिलीप मंडल

- प्रमोद रंजन  चर्चित सोशल मीडिया इनफ्लुएंसर दिलीप मंडल ने अचानक राजनीतिक पलटी मारी है और राजद-सपा-स्टालिन आदि के खेमे को छोड़ कर राष्ट्रीय स्वयंसेवक संघ के लिए बैटिंग करने लगे हैं। कई लोगों में उनके कथित पतन से दु:ख खीज और गुस्सा है।

नफरती बातें: मुसलमानों में असुरक्षा का भाव बढ़ रहा है, वे अपने मोहल्लों में सिमट रहे हैं

- राम पुनियानी*  भारत पर पिछले 10 सालों से हिन्दू राष्ट्रवादी भारतीय जनता पार्टी (भाजपा) राज कर रही है. भाजपा आरएसएस परिवार की सदस्य है और आरएसएस का लक्ष्य है हिन्दू राष्ट्र का निर्माण. आरएसएस से जुड़ी सैंकड़ों संस्थाएँ हैं. उसके लाखों, बल्कि शायद, करोड़ों स्वयंसेवक हैं. इसके अलावा कई हजार वरिष्ठ कार्यकर्ता हैं जिन्हें प्रचारक कहा जाता है. भाजपा के सत्ता में आने के बाद से आरएसएस दुगनी गति से हिन्दू राष्ट्र के निर्माण के अपने एजेण्डे को पूरा करने में जुट गया है. यदि भाजपा को चुनावों में लगातार सफलता हासिल हो रही है तो उसका कारण है देश में साम्प्रदायिकता और साम्प्रदायिक मुद्दों का बढ़ता बोलबाला. इनमें से कुछ हैं राम मंदिर, गौमांस और गोवध एवं लव जिहाद. 

આપણા સમાજમાં દીકરીના માતપિતાનો દરજ્જો દીકરાના માતાપિતા કરતાં નિમ્ન કક્ષાનો કેમ?

- તૃપ્તિ શેઠ  થોડાંક દિવસ પહેલાં એક દુકાનમાં ખરીદી કરવાં ગઈ અને એ બહેન જે દુકાન પર બેઠાં હતાં એ ફોન પર વાતો જ કર્યા કરતાં હતાં . હું કંટાળીને આગળ જવા ગઈ તો એ મને કહે , "સોરી !  મારી મમ્મીને હું રોજ આ સમયે ફોન કરું છું કેમ કે એ મંદિરમાં રહે છે અને ત્યાં ઈલેક્ટ્રિસિટી નથી. એ પાંચ રૂપીઆમાં ફોન રોજ ચાર્જ કરાવે અને મારી સાથે વાત કરે." મે પૂછ્યું તારી મમ્મી કેમ એકલી રહે છે, તો એનો જવાબ હતો કે મારા બે ભાઈઓએ મારી મમ્મીને એના ઘરમાંથી કાઢી મૂકી છે એટલે એક ગામના છેવાડે આવેલાં મંદિરમાં રહે છે અને ત્યાં કામ કરે છે . મે કહ્યું ,” તું કેમ તારી મમ્મીની બોલાવી લેતી નથી ? “ તો મને કહે, મારી મા કહે છે કે છોકરીને ઘરે પાણી પણ પીએ તો  પાપ લાગે. 

તત્વચિંતક રાજનીતિજ્ઞ મોદીનાં લોકસભાની ચૂંટણી સંદર્ભે મહાન વ્યાખ્યાનો પ્રકાશિત કરવા જોઈએ

- ઉત્તમ પરમાર  વિશ્વના મહાન તત્વચિંતક રાજનીતિજ્ઞ અને આપણા મહાન વડાપ્રધાન આદરણીય નરેન્દ્રભાઈ મોદી 2024ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણી સંદર્ભે જે જાહેર વ્યાખ્યાનો આપી રહ્યા છે, એ માત્ર ભારતના વડાપ્રધાનોના નહીં પરંતુ વિશ્વના વડાપ્રધાનોના પ્રવચનો પૈકી સર્વશ્રેષ્ઠ પ્રવચનો છે.

एक बहुत बड़ा झूठ: मुसलमानों की आबादी बढ़ती रही तो हिन्दू अल्पसंख्यक बन जाएंगे

- राम पुनियानी  चुनावी मौसम जैसे-जैसे समाप्ति की ओर बढ़ रहा है, वैसे-वैसे समाज को बांटने वाला प्रचार भी अपने चरम पर पहुँच रहा है. भाजपा के मुख्य प्रचारक स्वयं प्रधानमंत्री मोदी है. इस चुनाव में उनका पूरा नैरेटिव इस झूठ के  आसपास बुना गया है कि अगर इंडिया गठबंधन सत्ता में आया तो वह सारी सुविधाएं और लाभ केवल मुसलमानों को देगा. हर चीज़ पर मुसलमानों का पहला हक होगा और संविधान में इस तरह के बदलाव किये जाएंगे जिससे हिन्दू इस देश के दूसरे दर्जे के नागरिक बन जाएंगे. मोदीजी हमें जॉर्ज ऑरवेल के उपन्यास “नाइनटीन एट्टी-फोर”  की याद दिलाता है, जिसमें सच को सिर के बल खड़ा कर दिया जाता है. हिन्दुओं में यह डर पैदा किया जा रहा है कि देश में मुसलमान सारे विशेषाधिकार हासिल कर लेंगे.

हीट-एक्शन नीति में अनौपचारिक व खुले-में-कार्यरत मजदूरों को शामिल नहीं करना निंदनीय

- नेशनल अलायन्स ऑफ़ पीपुल्स मूवमेंट्स  पूरे भारत में 'चुनावी गर्मी' ज़ोर पकड़ चुकी है, जो हम सभी को साफ़-साफ़ दिखाई भी दे रही है। हालाँकि, एक और गर्मी है जो नागरिकों, विशेष रूप से करोड़ों खुले में काम करने वाले श्रमिकों को प्रभावित करती है, यह न तो 'चुनावी मुद्दा' है और न ही इस पर सामाजिक रूप से पर्याप्त ध्यान दिया जाता है। भारत के ग्रामीण और शहरी दोनों हिस्सों में मेहनतकश लोग, जो चिलचिलाती धूप में भी हमारे गाँवों और शहरों के लिए अनाज पैदा करते हैं, हर तरह का निर्माण कार्य करते हैं, शहरों व गांवों को चलाते हैं, हमें विभिन्न प्रकार की सेवाएँ प्रदान करें, लेकिन इसी वर्ग का अभी तक 'मुख्यधारा' के जलवायु न्याय और नीतिगत विमर्श में पर्याप्त रूप से प्रतिनिधित्व नहीं किया गया है।