सीधे मुख्य सामग्री पर जाएं

Forfeited before realizing: Demographic dividend’s potential and reality in India

By IMPRI Team 

Demographic dividend is an important socio-economic factor which has the potential to aid the country towards progress and prosperity. It is hotly debated but has lost its relevance and presence in the larger public discourse. As part of its #WebPolicyTalk series, The State of Population and Development #PopulationAndDevelopment, #IMPRI Center for Human Dignity and Development (CHDD), IMPRI Impact and Policy Research Institute, New Delhi, organized the panel discussion on Forfeited Before Realizing: Demographic Dividend’s Potential & Reality In India.
Mr. Devender Singh, Global Studies Programme, University of Freiburg, Germany; Visiting Senior Fellow, IMPRI was the moderator for this discussion. He explained the concept of Working Age Ratio (WAR) and stated how the WAR can be highest for India in the 2020-40 period. He even mentioned the right conditions required for realizing a demographic dividend which includes education and health. Thus, Mr. Singh set the premise for the further discussion.

Story of demographic dividend: Indian context

Professor P.M. Kulkarni is a Demographer and a retired professor of Population studies at JNU University, New Delhi. He briefly explained the phenomena of demographic dividend and how it was founded by East Asian Tigers and rapid economic growth in East Asian countries. He iterated that the window of a demographic dividend is not planned and not included in Policy action plans but it can be controlled by steep decline in fertility rates and higher labor force participation rate.
When dependency ratios are less than the working age population then the conditions are favorable for the demographic window to be open. Professor also depicts the favorable demographic dividend through graphical representation and shows how for India the next 45-50 years are most favourable.A comparison with China is done in order to contrast its early dividend and display its long time period of window and low dependency ratio.
A region-wise division shows a stark contrast between the southern states who have reached the dividend earlier than Central states. The population growth is also supposed to fall after 2061 and the teenage population would decline. He later concluded by saying that India should find ways to combat challenges like Inter-state migration which hinder us from taking a benefit of the dividend.

The number game of working age population

Dr. Neha Jain is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT). She elaborated more upon the Demographic opportunity and the two stages that can be expected in India. She also showed the relationship between the increase of the working age population to a proportionate rise in economic growth. She also applied the regression based inequality decomposition model to display the variation among states in the working age population. The demographic opportunity window in India is only 30 years which is comparatively low as per Dr Jain.
Post that, the aging burden would increase. She also listed out the various challenges and hurdles in managing this demographic dividend such as dwindling investment in education, low life expectancy rate and poor quality of governance. The rapid pace of aging in India in comparison to other countries like France is also a huge barrier in realizing the true benefits of the demographic dividend.

Employment growth and industrial policy: challenge for Indian States

Professor Jayan Jose Thomas is a Professor of Economics at the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi. He commenced by showing how India is a leading contributor in the working age population in the world in the 2010-2020 period. States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu run the risk of ‘growing old before getting rich’ because of declining fertility rates. He hinted at an increase of 4.5 million jobs per year in the industry, construction and services sector as there is a gradual exit from the agriculture sector.
The employment challenge is of serious concern for states having a younger population as the actual rate of job creation is unable to match the rising rate of job seekers in the economy. This would create competition between workers and reduce their bargaining strength thus affecting the most vulnerable sections amongst the workers.
The ranking of states on ‘Ease of doing Business’ is based on cheap land and labor which in return do not create a labor conducive environment. Low wages depress demand and constrain growth and employment creation. Giving a case study example of Kerala, he explained the demand-supply mismatch in the labor market. He concluded by explaining the challenges in formulating an industrial policy which requires creating knowledge intensive industries which would require huge investments in infrastructure. However, limited financial resources pose a challenge for the same.

Comparison with China: A grim reality for India

Professor Santosh Mehrotra is a Visiting Professor at the Center for Development Studies at University of Bath, UK. He has also written a book on the same topic titled ‘Realizing Demographic Dividend’. He began by explaining why China’s demographic dividend was longer, mainly pointing out their early exit from agriculture. He highlights the ignorance of policymakers and academicians from the manufacturing sector and its ability to create unskilled jobs.
According to him, the alarming rate at which number of unemployed people are growing is also a cause of concern. He stated that 85% of the working age population in China and 90% in South Korea possess technical education and vocational training as compared to less than 5% in India.

Summing up

Mr. Devendra Singh concluded the Panel discussion by presenting the final statements and summary of the discussion. He recognized the poor preparation and extremely low rates of investment in education and healthcare which was echoed by the panelists as well. He mentioned about the worrisome learning outcomes in school, absolutely no vocational training and dismal number of women in the workforce as some of the biggest barriers in realizing the dividend. He also listed out the social security issues for the older population and low-quality of migration from Northern states to Southern states as concerning situations as well.
He concluded by saying that there is no urgency in high focus states as the 6 northern-central states would hone 2/3rds of the population growth. It remains to be seen what policy interventions are put into place to improve the quality of education and healthcare. Finally, he said that we would have a limited and skewed demographic dividend out of the potential moderate overall dividend. This would consist of upper-middle-class urban young people who are healthier, better educated and highly skilled and would be able to gain skilled jobs in India or abroad.
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Acknowledgement: Manush Shah, Research intern, IMPRI

टिप्पणियाँ

ट्रेंडिंग

हिंदी आलोचना जैसे पिछड़ चुके अनुशासन की जगह हिंदी वैचारिकी का विकास जरूरी

- प्रमोद रंजन*   भारतीय राजनीति में सांप्रदायिक व प्रतिक्रियावादी ताकतों को सत्ता तक पहुंचाने में हिंदी पट्टी का सबसे बड़ा योगदान है। इसका मुख्य कारण हिंदी-पट्टी में कार्यरत समाजवादी व जनपक्षधर हिरावल दस्ते का विचारहीन, अनैतिक और  प्रतिक्रियावादी होते जाना है। अगर हम उपरोक्त बातों को स्वीकार करते हैं, तो कुछ रोचक निष्कर्ष निकलते हैं। हिंदी-जनता और उसके हिरावल दस्ते को विचारहीन और प्रतिक्रियावादी बनने से रोकने की मुख्य ज़िम्मेदारी किसकी थी?

ગુજરાતના સ્થાપના દિવસે યાદ કરીએ ભારતના વિશ્વપ્રસિદ્ધ ગુજરાતી પુરાતત્વવિદ્ ને

- ગૌરાંગ જાની*  આજે કોઈ ગુજરાતી એ કલ્પના પણ ન કરી શકે કે વર્ષ ૧૮૩૯ માં જૂનાગઢમાં જન્મેલા એક ગુજરાતી વિશ્વ પ્રસિદ્ધ બની શકે! પણ આપણે એ ગુજરાતીને કદાચ વિસરી ગયા છીએ જેમણે ગિરનારના અશોક શિલાલેખને દોઢસો વર્ષ પૂર્વે ઉકેલી આપ્યો.આ વિદ્વાન એટલે ભગવાનલાલ ઈન્દ્રજી. ૭ નવેમ્બર, ૧૮૩૯ ના દિવસે જૂનાગઢના પ્રશ્નોરા નાગર બ્રાહ્મણ પરિવારમાં તેમનો જન્મ થયો હતો. જૂનાગઢના એ સમયે અંગ્રેજી શિક્ષણની સગવડ ન હોવાને કારણે તેમને અંગ્રેજી ભાષાનું જ્ઞાન ન હતું પણ પાછળથી તેમણે ખપ પૂરતું અંગ્રેજી જાણી લીધું હતું.

Under Modi, democracy is regressing and economy is also growing slowly

By Avyaan Sharma*   India is "the largest democracy in the world", but now its democracy is regressing and its economy is also growing slowly. What has PM Modi's ten years in power brought us? Unemployment remains high. Joblessness is particularly high among India's youth - with those aged 15 to 29 making up a staggering 83% of all unemployed people in India, according to the "India Employment Report 2024", published last month by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute of Human Development (IHD). The BJP-led government did not provide jobs to two crore youth in a year as was promised by Modi in the run up to the 2014 general elections.

नफरती बातें: मुसलमानों में असुरक्षा का भाव बढ़ रहा है, वे अपने मोहल्लों में सिमट रहे हैं

- राम पुनियानी*  भारत पर पिछले 10 सालों से हिन्दू राष्ट्रवादी भारतीय जनता पार्टी (भाजपा) राज कर रही है. भाजपा आरएसएस परिवार की सदस्य है और आरएसएस का लक्ष्य है हिन्दू राष्ट्र का निर्माण. आरएसएस से जुड़ी सैंकड़ों संस्थाएँ हैं. उसके लाखों, बल्कि शायद, करोड़ों स्वयंसेवक हैं. इसके अलावा कई हजार वरिष्ठ कार्यकर्ता हैं जिन्हें प्रचारक कहा जाता है. भाजपा के सत्ता में आने के बाद से आरएसएस दुगनी गति से हिन्दू राष्ट्र के निर्माण के अपने एजेण्डे को पूरा करने में जुट गया है. यदि भाजपा को चुनावों में लगातार सफलता हासिल हो रही है तो उसका कारण है देश में साम्प्रदायिकता और साम्प्रदायिक मुद्दों का बढ़ता बोलबाला. इनमें से कुछ हैं राम मंदिर, गौमांस और गोवध एवं लव जिहाद. 

Laxmanpur Bathe massacre: Perfect example of proto-fascist Brahmanical social order

By Harsh Thakor  The massacre at Laxmanpur-Bathe of Jehanabad in Bihar on the night of 1 December in 1997 was a landmark event with distinguishing features .The genocide rightly shook the conscience of the nation in the 50th year of Indian independence. The scale of the carnage was unparalleled in any caste massacre. It was a perfect manifestation of how in essence the so called neo-liberal state was in essence most autocratic. 

ભારતમાં જિસસ ક્રાઈસ્ટના દર્શન, ખ્રિસ્તી ધર્મના આગમનને કારણે સમાજ વ્યવસ્થામાં પરિવર્તન

- ઉત્તમ પરમાર  મારી કિશોર અવસ્થામાં કેટલાક ચિત્રો અને મૂર્તિઓએ હૃદયમાં એવું સ્થાન જમાવ્યું છે કે આજદિન પર્યંત  ઉત્તરોઉત્તર વિકસતું જ રહ્યું છે. પ્રેમ કરુણાના મૂર્તિમંત અવતાર  જિસસ ક્રાઈસ્ટને વધુસ્તંભે ચઢાવેલી મૂર્તિ  મારી કોઈપણ ધર્મ વિશેની સમજ નહોતી ત્યારથી મારા હૃદયમાં સ્થાપિત થયેલી છે. મારા ઘરની દિવાલ પર વધસ્તંભે ચઢેલા જીસસની પ્રતિમા જોઈને કોઈ મને પૂછી બેસતું કે તું ક્રિશ્ચન છે?

रैंकिंग: अधिकांश भारतीय विश्वविद्यालयों का स्तर बहुत गिरा, इस साल भी यह गिरवाट जारी

- प्रमोद रंजन*  अप्रैल, 2024 में भारतीय विश्वविद्यालयों की अंतर्राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर उच्च रैंकिंग की चर्चा रही। मीडिया ने इसका उत्सव मनाया। लेकिन स्थिति इसके विपरीत है। वैश्विक विश्वविद्यालय रैंकिग में अच्छा स्थान मिलने की खबरें, कुछ संस्थानों को इक्का-दुक्का विषयों में मिले रैंक के आधार पर चुनिंदा ढंग से प्रकाशित की गईं थीं। वास्तविकता यह है कि हाल के वर्षों में हमारे अधिकांश विश्वविद्यालयों का स्तर बहुत गिर गया है। इस साल भी यह गिरवाट जारी रही है।

नोएडा में मैन्युअल स्कैवेंजर्स की मौत: परिवारों को मुआवजा नहीं, प्राधिकरण ने एफआईआर नहीं की

- अरुण खोटे, संजीव कुमार*  गत एक सप्ताह में, उत्तर प्रदेश में सीवर/सेप्टि क टैंक सफाई कर्मियों की सफाई के दौरान सेप्टिक टैंक में मौत। 2 मई, 2024 को, लखनऊ के वज़ीरगजं क्षेत्र में एक सेवर लाइन की सफाई करते समय शोब्रान यादव, 56, और उनके पत्रु सशुील यादव, 28, घटुन से हुई मौत। एक और घटना 3 मई 2024 को नोएडा, सेक्टर 26 में एक घर में सेप्टि क टैंक को सफाई करते समय दो सफाई कर्मचर्मारी नूनी मडंल, 36 और कोकन मडंल जिसे तपन मडंल के नाम से जानते हैं, की मौत हो गई। ये सफाई कर्मचर्मारी बंगाल के मालदा जिले के निवासी थे और नोएडा सेक्टर 9 में रहते थे। कोकन मडंल अपनी पत्नी अनीता मडंल के साथ रहते थे। इनके तीन स्कूल जाने वाले बच्चे हैं जो बंगाल में रहते हैं। नूनी मडंल अपनी पत्नी लिलिका मडंल और अपने पत्रु सजुान के साथ किराए पर झग्गी में रहते थे। वे दैनिक मजदरूी और सफाई कर्मचर्मारी के रूप में काम करते थे।

प्राचीन भारत के लोकायत संप्रदाय ने कुछ परजीवियों की खूब खबर ली: प्रमुख प्रस्थापनायें

- राणा सिंह   भारत में परजीवियों का एक विशाल समूह है जो बोलता है कि “सब कुछ माया है”,  लेकिन व्यवहार में यह समूह सारी जिंदगी इसी “माया” के पीछे पागल रहता है।  प्राचीन भारत के लोकायत संप्रदाय ने इन परजीवियों की खूब खबर ली थी।

बिहार के ऐतिहासिक विक्रमशिला विश्वविद्यालय के खंडहरों की परिक्रमा का रोमांचक अवसर

- सुमन्त शरण  कुछ दिन पहले एक सुदूर ग्रामीण अंचल (पीरपैंती)  से तकरीबन डेढ़-दो घंटे की दूरी पर अवस्थित ऐतिहासिक बौद्ध विक्रमशिला विश्वविद्यालय (के अवशेषों) की परिक्रमा का अवसर मिला। विक्रमशीला विश्वविद्यालय की स्थापना पाल वंश के राजा धर्मपाल ने की थी। 8वीं शताब्दी से 12वीं शताब्दी के अंत तक यह विश्वविद्यालय भारत के प्रमुख शिक्षा केंद्रों में से एक हुआ करता था। कहा जाता है कि यह अपने कुछेक अत्यंत अनूठे नवाचार के चलते उस समय नालंदा विश्वविद्यालय का सबसे बड़ा प्रतिस्पर्धी था। हालांकि, मान्यता यह भी है कि अल्प अवधि के लिए दोनों विश्वविद्यालय के बीच शिक्षण एवं प्रबंधन के क्षेत्रों में घनिष्ठ पारस्परिक संबंध एवं शिक्षकों के आदान-प्रदान का सिलसिला भी रहा था। यह विश्वविद्यालय तंत्रशास्त्र की पढ़ाई के लिए सबसे ज्यादा विख्यात था। इस विषय का एक सबसे विख्यात छात्र अतीसा दीपनकरा था, जो बाद में तिब्बत जाकर बौद्ध हो गया। इसके प्रथम कुलपति ज्ञान अतिस थे।