सीधे मुख्य सामग्री पर जाएं

Economic reform and Union Budget: Mindset change from entitlement to empowerment

By IMPRI Team 

As part of its The State of Economy- #EconDialogue series, #IMPRI Center for Study of Finance and Economics, IMPRI Impact and Policy Research Institute, New Delhi, organized the panel discussion on New India’s Economic Transformation and Union Budget 2023-24 on February 8th, 2023 as a part of the IMPRI’s third annual series of thematic deliberations and analysis of the Union Budget, fiscal year 2023-24 being organized from February 2- February 7, 2023.
Ms Zubiya Moin, researcher at IMPRI started the program by giving a brief introduction about the topic and also introducing the moderator and chair for the session, Prof Mukul Asher, Former Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore; Visiting Distinguished Professor, IMPRI.
She further welcomed the panelists Dr A. Amarender Reddy, Principal Scientist (Agricultural Economics), ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad; Dr Radhika Pandey, Senior Fellow, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; Mr V. Ramakrishnan, Managing Director, Organisation Development, Singapore; Prof K. Seeta Prabhu, Visiting Professor, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai; Visiting Faculty, Indian School of Development Management – ISDM , New Delhi and Prof Prabir De, Professor, Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), New Delhi.
Prof Mukul Asher made some broad observations on this year’s budget, terming it as the ‘first budget of the Amrit Kaal’ (2022-47) with a vision to transform the country into a high-middle income country and making India as a global player in multiple arenas. He also analyzed the total spending of this year’s budget which is a massive 45 trillion INR package (32,000 rupees per person). He also stressed on the fact that India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world with a GDP growth rate of 6.1%.
Prof Asher also talks about the ‘mindset change’ from entitlement to empowerment and the increasing trend of Union government’s capital expenditure as a percent of GDP. He also commented on the creation of various industrial corridor projects that will further lead to formation of industrial cities. Calling the strategy as credible and flexible, Prof Asher’s preliminary remarks set the premise for the rest of the discussion.

Fine Balance between Fiscal growth and Fiscal Consolidation

Dr Radhika Pandey termed that the budget had struck a fine balance between fiscal growth and fiscal consolidation. She asserts that by quoting the government’s commitment to lower the fiscal deficit ratio to 5.9% of the GDP in the coming financial year. Furthering her analysis, Dr. Pandey said that the lowering of fiscal deficit helps in cooling the aggregate demand and aids RBI to lower inflation rates as well. She highlights the twin growth boosters which are high thrust of capital expenditure and moderation in personal taxation.
She also talked about market expectations inline with market borrowings, at 15.4 lakh crore (Gross) and 11.8 lakh crore (Net). Reiterating the higher capital expenditure, she pointed towards a growth of about 37% than the previous budget. This expenditure, she mentioned, being targeted in infrastructure related sectors will give a boost to urban infrastructure in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities. She also talked about the various incentives presented to the states in order to increase capital spending which includes 50 years interest free loans.
She also talked about the increase in capital expenditure and the reduction in revenue expenditure. She also mentioned expenditure compression which is done by reducing the subsidies. She concluded her presentation by terming the tax rebate under the new tax regime as a good move which will boost consumption at the lower end of the spectrum.

From Global Lens

Prof Prabir De gave the perspectives on the budget from the point of view of the Ministry of External Affairs focusing Amrit Kaal Budget and how the goal of a 7 trillion dollar economy by 2030 and a 25 trillion dollar economy by 2047 can be achieved. He pointed to the positive trend of fiscal deficit numbers going down, when compared with the previous year. He also noticed the encouraging numbers of SME credit, exports and capital expenditure going considerably high every year. However, he expressed his disappointment at just half a percent’s allocation of funds from the total budget to the external affairs.
He talked about significant budget cuts in the infrastructure projects and developmental aid funds to neighboring countries except Bhutan and Nepal. He mentioned the improper allocation of funds while talking about Chhabahar port, capacity building training programs in Africa and some of the new markets that we go for in Latin America. He also highlighted the budget’s overlook on the Foreign Trade policy and not bringing reforms in issues like import duty cut or duty arbitrages.
He also noticed the repercussions of the Ukraine war triggering the energy and food crisis, exchange rate fluctuations resulting in our fiscal deficit gap. Prof De talked about India’s commitment to net zero emission by 2070 which puts the country on the global map in the area of energy transition and climate change. He also stressed on greater allocation towards healthcare infrastructure and the roads and network infrastructure too. Lastly, he talked about reducing the regional disparity between the states lying on the West coast and the East coast.

From Lens Of Social Services

Prof K. Seeta Prabhu talked about high inequality and unsustainability as the two major challenges that the country faces and how high capital expenditure has affected the revenue expenditure. She pointed towards the tendency of equating physical infrastructure with development and neglecting the social services which means neglecting the capabilities of the people. She believes that there should not be a trade off between physical and social infrastructure and there should be an enhancement of the capabilities coupled with empowerment.
She talked about the shrinking capacity of the government’s ability to spend which has gone down since 2022. The ideal situation as mentioned by her should be that the public expenditure ratio shall be at 15% and the social expenditure ratio should be at 40%, where the current public expenditure ratio has come down to 15% and the current social expenditure ratio continues to hover around 26% of the total expenditure. She stated India is struck in middle income trap because of the inability to deliver services that reach the poor directly.
She briefly talked about the aspects of equity and sustainability themes in this year’s budget. Further, she pointed towards the low allocation towards education and health sector. She emphasized on the need to improve the quality of secondary education and sternly said that the allocation of 6 percent of GDP to the education sector still remains a distant dream. Regarding life expectancy, she compared our dismal numbers with that of Bangladesh and commented that the infant mortality rate and child mortality rate, though declining, are not enough to reach SDG targets.
She pointed out various problems like duplication of efforts, non-utilization of funds and inadequate support to States on social services’ spending which hinders India’s commitment to achieve social attainment. In her concluding remarks, she spoke about green finance, India’s net emissions targets, National Hydrogen Mission and much more.

Focus On Manufacturing Sector

Mr V. Ramakrishnan talked about the three percent of GDP in capital expenditure and how it was approaching the saturation levels thus highlighting the downside of the capex boost. He stressed on the need to increase manufacturing and scale it from 16% of GDP to 25% of GDP. He talked extensively about creating a competitive manufacturing sector, improving export opportunities and skill development along with focusing more on sectors like defense and railways.
He stated that the manufacturing sector is not given the due focus even though it employs almost half of the entire labor force and pointed towards the abysmal numbers of factor productivity, and the poor gross value added which is at a marginal 3.7 % in the industrial sector. He also talked about inadequate employment generation, poor quality of jobs and lack of innovation in the sector.
Mr. Ramakrishnan emphasizes on the need for clean and reliable energy generation. He also focused on the gargantuan quantities of water required by electronic industry, which is clean and of a particular pH and hardness level. He also spoke regarding the absence of battery backups in public institutions. He lauded the power generation capacity but emphasized on the quality of transmission and distribution of electricity.
He brought his focus on waste and water management, sewage water treatment, absence of a circular management of water and lack of investments in the sector. He referred to surveys to show the dismal state of MSMEs in productivity and operational areas, working capital management and process efficiencies and their inability to compete globally.
He also talked on the EV sector and their massive energy requirements. While concluding, he mentioned that MSMEs are the backbone for transforming the manufacturing sector and there is an urgent need for having effective power generation and water and waste management systems in place.

Emphasis On Agriculture

Dr A. Amarender Reddy focussed his presentation on inclusive development and infrastructure largely in the rural and agricultural arenas. Dr. Reddy talked about the transition in the type of schemes wherein earlier the human touch was involved but in the current era of direct benefit transfers, it has gotten lost. He talks about the backward states like Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Assam who do not have adequate technological advancement and for them, DBT does not prove to be extremely beneficial. He stressed on the need to improve the quality and competitiveness of our agricultural exports. He mentioned a few features of the budget which focuses on having more hiring centers, mechanized machinery, agro-based startups and the emergence of digital platforms for farmers.
However, Dr. Reddy was concerned due to the over emphasis of technology and undervaluing of the human capital at the grassroots level whereas these institutions are decentralized and people-driven in nature. He believes that the digital public infrastructure will regulate the cooperatives and mandis and will reduce corruption especially with the e-NAM. He also mentioned the problems faced by tenant farmers in accessing these digital interfaces as they are linked to land ownership and not to cultivation. He also talked about the goal of converting 10% of total farmers into natural farming with the creation of 10,000 bio-input centers to aid in this goal.
He further emphasized the need to increase spending on R&D owing to the low productivity levels, and the inability to meet international standards. He recognized the importance given to fisheries, local and dairy farming. He also positively commented on the focus given to millets especially when this year is being celebrated as the ‘International year of millets.’ He listed down some of the important initiatives like the emphasis on Biomass, Tribal Welfare, Free Food Subsidy and Skill Development. He noticed a 32% budget slash in MGNREGA but also identified its flexibility in budget increase as it is demand-driven. While concluding, he said that the schemes might have a crowding effect and thus generate rural employment.
While summing up, Prof Asher lauded the diversity of the panel and made some important observations on the responsibility of the state governments. In the closing statements, the panelists made remarks on multifarious issues right from MSP to loss of GDP due to poor power, and even skill-based education, innovation, import duty reduction and implementation of fiscal consolidation.
Prof Asher concluded the session by saying that the budget provides so many puzzles and opens gateways to interesting discussions and deliberations in academia. The event was concluded with a final vote of thanks by Ms Zubiya Moin on behalf of the IMPRI Center for Study of Finance and Economics.
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Acknowledgement: Manush Shah, a researcher at IMPRI

टिप्पणियाँ

ट्रेंडिंग

हिंदी आलोचना जैसे पिछड़ चुके अनुशासन की जगह हिंदी वैचारिकी का विकास जरूरी

- प्रमोद रंजन*   भारतीय राजनीति में सांप्रदायिक व प्रतिक्रियावादी ताकतों को सत्ता तक पहुंचाने में हिंदी पट्टी का सबसे बड़ा योगदान है। इसका मुख्य कारण हिंदी-पट्टी में कार्यरत समाजवादी व जनपक्षधर हिरावल दस्ते का विचारहीन, अनैतिक और  प्रतिक्रियावादी होते जाना है। अगर हम उपरोक्त बातों को स्वीकार करते हैं, तो कुछ रोचक निष्कर्ष निकलते हैं। हिंदी-जनता और उसके हिरावल दस्ते को विचारहीन और प्रतिक्रियावादी बनने से रोकने की मुख्य ज़िम्मेदारी किसकी थी?

ગુજરાતના સ્થાપના દિવસે યાદ કરીએ ભારતના વિશ્વપ્રસિદ્ધ ગુજરાતી પુરાતત્વવિદ્ ને

- ગૌરાંગ જાની*  આજે કોઈ ગુજરાતી એ કલ્પના પણ ન કરી શકે કે વર્ષ ૧૮૩૯ માં જૂનાગઢમાં જન્મેલા એક ગુજરાતી વિશ્વ પ્રસિદ્ધ બની શકે! પણ આપણે એ ગુજરાતીને કદાચ વિસરી ગયા છીએ જેમણે ગિરનારના અશોક શિલાલેખને દોઢસો વર્ષ પૂર્વે ઉકેલી આપ્યો.આ વિદ્વાન એટલે ભગવાનલાલ ઈન્દ્રજી. ૭ નવેમ્બર, ૧૮૩૯ ના દિવસે જૂનાગઢના પ્રશ્નોરા નાગર બ્રાહ્મણ પરિવારમાં તેમનો જન્મ થયો હતો. જૂનાગઢના એ સમયે અંગ્રેજી શિક્ષણની સગવડ ન હોવાને કારણે તેમને અંગ્રેજી ભાષાનું જ્ઞાન ન હતું પણ પાછળથી તેમણે ખપ પૂરતું અંગ્રેજી જાણી લીધું હતું.

Under Modi, democracy is regressing and economy is also growing slowly

By Avyaan Sharma*   India is "the largest democracy in the world", but now its democracy is regressing and its economy is also growing slowly. What has PM Modi's ten years in power brought us? Unemployment remains high. Joblessness is particularly high among India's youth - with those aged 15 to 29 making up a staggering 83% of all unemployed people in India, according to the "India Employment Report 2024", published last month by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute of Human Development (IHD). The BJP-led government did not provide jobs to two crore youth in a year as was promised by Modi in the run up to the 2014 general elections.

नफरती बातें: मुसलमानों में असुरक्षा का भाव बढ़ रहा है, वे अपने मोहल्लों में सिमट रहे हैं

- राम पुनियानी*  भारत पर पिछले 10 सालों से हिन्दू राष्ट्रवादी भारतीय जनता पार्टी (भाजपा) राज कर रही है. भाजपा आरएसएस परिवार की सदस्य है और आरएसएस का लक्ष्य है हिन्दू राष्ट्र का निर्माण. आरएसएस से जुड़ी सैंकड़ों संस्थाएँ हैं. उसके लाखों, बल्कि शायद, करोड़ों स्वयंसेवक हैं. इसके अलावा कई हजार वरिष्ठ कार्यकर्ता हैं जिन्हें प्रचारक कहा जाता है. भाजपा के सत्ता में आने के बाद से आरएसएस दुगनी गति से हिन्दू राष्ट्र के निर्माण के अपने एजेण्डे को पूरा करने में जुट गया है. यदि भाजपा को चुनावों में लगातार सफलता हासिल हो रही है तो उसका कारण है देश में साम्प्रदायिकता और साम्प्रदायिक मुद्दों का बढ़ता बोलबाला. इनमें से कुछ हैं राम मंदिर, गौमांस और गोवध एवं लव जिहाद. 

Laxmanpur Bathe massacre: Perfect example of proto-fascist Brahmanical social order

By Harsh Thakor  The massacre at Laxmanpur-Bathe of Jehanabad in Bihar on the night of 1 December in 1997 was a landmark event with distinguishing features .The genocide rightly shook the conscience of the nation in the 50th year of Indian independence. The scale of the carnage was unparalleled in any caste massacre. It was a perfect manifestation of how in essence the so called neo-liberal state was in essence most autocratic. 

रैंकिंग: अधिकांश भारतीय विश्वविद्यालयों का स्तर बहुत गिरा, इस साल भी यह गिरवाट जारी

- प्रमोद रंजन*  अप्रैल, 2024 में भारतीय विश्वविद्यालयों की अंतर्राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर उच्च रैंकिंग की चर्चा रही। मीडिया ने इसका उत्सव मनाया। लेकिन स्थिति इसके विपरीत है। वैश्विक विश्वविद्यालय रैंकिग में अच्छा स्थान मिलने की खबरें, कुछ संस्थानों को इक्का-दुक्का विषयों में मिले रैंक के आधार पर चुनिंदा ढंग से प्रकाशित की गईं थीं। वास्तविकता यह है कि हाल के वर्षों में हमारे अधिकांश विश्वविद्यालयों का स्तर बहुत गिर गया है। इस साल भी यह गिरवाट जारी रही है।

प्राचीन भारत के लोकायत संप्रदाय ने कुछ परजीवियों की खूब खबर ली: प्रमुख प्रस्थापनायें

- राणा सिंह   भारत में परजीवियों का एक विशाल समूह है जो बोलता है कि “सब कुछ माया है”,  लेकिन व्यवहार में यह समूह सारी जिंदगी इसी “माया” के पीछे पागल रहता है।  प्राचीन भारत के लोकायत संप्रदाय ने इन परजीवियों की खूब खबर ली थी।

नोएडा में मैन्युअल स्कैवेंजर्स की मौत: परिवारों को मुआवजा नहीं, प्राधिकरण ने एफआईआर नहीं की

- अरुण खोटे, संजीव कुमार*  गत एक सप्ताह में, उत्तर प्रदेश में सीवर/सेप्टि क टैंक सफाई कर्मियों की सफाई के दौरान सेप्टिक टैंक में मौत। 2 मई, 2024 को, लखनऊ के वज़ीरगजं क्षेत्र में एक सेवर लाइन की सफाई करते समय शोब्रान यादव, 56, और उनके पत्रु सशुील यादव, 28, घटुन से हुई मौत। एक और घटना 3 मई 2024 को नोएडा, सेक्टर 26 में एक घर में सेप्टि क टैंक को सफाई करते समय दो सफाई कर्मचर्मारी नूनी मडंल, 36 और कोकन मडंल जिसे तपन मडंल के नाम से जानते हैं, की मौत हो गई। ये सफाई कर्मचर्मारी बंगाल के मालदा जिले के निवासी थे और नोएडा सेक्टर 9 में रहते थे। कोकन मडंल अपनी पत्नी अनीता मडंल के साथ रहते थे। इनके तीन स्कूल जाने वाले बच्चे हैं जो बंगाल में रहते हैं। नूनी मडंल अपनी पत्नी लिलिका मडंल और अपने पत्रु सजुान के साथ किराए पर झग्गी में रहते थे। वे दैनिक मजदरूी और सफाई कर्मचर्मारी के रूप में काम करते थे।

दाँव उल्टा पड़ा: राहुल गांधी के रूप में हम एक साधारण इंसान को नायक होते देख रहे हैं

-  अमिता नीरव  संघ औऱ बीजेपी ने राहुल गाँधी पर जो सोचकर ‘इन्वेस्ट’ किया था, उसके परिणाम गंभीर रूप से नुकसानदेह आ रहे हैं। ये थोड़ी अटपटी बात लग सकती है, लेकिन सोचिएगा कि संघ और बीजेपी ने राहुल गाँधी को जितना गंभीरता से लिया, उनकी संभावनाओं को लेकर वे जितना श्योर थे, उतना तो खुद राहुल और कांग्रेस भी नहीं थी।

बिहार के ऐतिहासिक विक्रमशिला विश्वविद्यालय के खंडहरों की परिक्रमा का रोमांचक अवसर

- सुमन्त शरण  कुछ दिन पहले एक सुदूर ग्रामीण अंचल (पीरपैंती)  से तकरीबन डेढ़-दो घंटे की दूरी पर अवस्थित ऐतिहासिक बौद्ध विक्रमशिला विश्वविद्यालय (के अवशेषों) की परिक्रमा का अवसर मिला। विक्रमशीला विश्वविद्यालय की स्थापना पाल वंश के राजा धर्मपाल ने की थी। 8वीं शताब्दी से 12वीं शताब्दी के अंत तक यह विश्वविद्यालय भारत के प्रमुख शिक्षा केंद्रों में से एक हुआ करता था। कहा जाता है कि यह अपने कुछेक अत्यंत अनूठे नवाचार के चलते उस समय नालंदा विश्वविद्यालय का सबसे बड़ा प्रतिस्पर्धी था। हालांकि, मान्यता यह भी है कि अल्प अवधि के लिए दोनों विश्वविद्यालय के बीच शिक्षण एवं प्रबंधन के क्षेत्रों में घनिष्ठ पारस्परिक संबंध एवं शिक्षकों के आदान-प्रदान का सिलसिला भी रहा था। यह विश्वविद्यालय तंत्रशास्त्र की पढ़ाई के लिए सबसे ज्यादा विख्यात था। इस विषय का एक सबसे विख्यात छात्र अतीसा दीपनकरा था, जो बाद में तिब्बत जाकर बौद्ध हो गया। इसके प्रथम कुलपति ज्ञान अतिस थे।