सीधे मुख्य सामग्री पर जाएं

Ukraine: To what extent can western countries get into direct confrontation with Russia?

By Bharat Dogra 

Among all the countries and regions of the world, the west is supposed to have the best capacity for conducting research, carrying out investigations and gathering intelligence. This is due to the existence of very well-funded intelligence agencies, academic and research organizations, universities and think –tanks as well as very well-resourced and networked media organizations. In addition there is supposed to be the constitutionally guaranteed freedom for a diversity of opinion to exist and spread, providing checks and balances and enabling corrections at an early stage. Opposition parties are supposed to have wide space, more than in most other countries, to provide alternative and opposing views and having these debated, leading to correctives when needed. All this together can provide a very strong base for evidence-based policy- making.
However despite all this, it increasingly appears that the room for evidence-based policy in the west is fast shrinking, judging from some recent instances. The most discussed issue of recent times has been the Ukraine conflict where most evidence has to be obtained from within Europe and hence is particularly easy to collect. It should have been possible to find very clear answers to at least four basic questions on the situation in Ukraine during 2014-2021.
Firstly, was the 2014 coup to dislodge an elected government largely the result of the support and instigation of the USA and close allies with the aim of a consistently anti-Russia policy being imposed on Ukraine? Secondly, was this followed by the steady strengthening of neo-Nazi forces, including armed forces? Thirdly, were there many attacks on Russian language speaking citizens during this period leading to several thousand deaths, with the neo-Nazis being the leading perpetrators, and such attacks increasing further in 2021? Lastly, did this period witness large-scale farmland grab by big business interests, including those with strong links to western countries and tax havens, while at the same time the condition of farmers, workers and common people declined, at least partially due to policies imposed by west-dominated financial institutions?
These are four crucial questions for getting a clear idea of the nature of changes taking place in Ukraine during 2014-21. If the answer to all these questions is in the affirmative, then clearly the ethical case against the Ukraine authorities and those supporting them during this period would be very strong. On grounds of democracy, human rights and justice, there would be a very strong case for condemning what was happening in Ukraine during this period.
Now a number of efforts of individuals and organizations based within the west have in fact examined these four questions and on the basis of a lot of evidence have answered all these four questions in the affirmative. However these are mostly small, frequently marginalized efforts and their findings have been ignored by those who are really most important from the point of view of policy making. The dominant view has ignored all these concerns. The leading opposition parties have also not taken up these concerns. The leading think-tanks have also not taken them up, nor have the leading media organizations, instead pushing a very different narrative.
In these conditions some of the distinguished scholars, helped by younger colleagues and students, can play a very important role, without any bias at all and in a completely honest way, caring only for the factual position. They can prepare very detailed evidence-based reports on these issues together with carefully written summaries and press releases and make these available for anybody to read and discuss. There can be several efforts in this direction. This will help to create a public opinion based on the factual situation.
Then there is the question of how to see the Russian invasion. There is a strong case for saying that at a time of such a serious environmental crisis, there is no room for any invasion or any war. Then there is also the obvious fact that all invasions involve much regrettable loss of life and other distress, particularly in these times when such destructive weapons are available. But having said that, the task of detailed examination of any invasion still remains, with more emphasis on exploring to what extent it was avoidable and secondly, who should get the most blame for this.
Now the relevant questions in this context are—to what extent was Ukraine being changed to make the situation unacceptably risky for Russia and to what extent were the attacks on the Russian speaking people of Ukraine increasing? If the situation in both these contexts was steadily worsening, and this can be found by evidence-based research, what were the options available to Russia? Was it possible to protect essential and legitimate interests of Russia without an invasion? If Russia had merely relied on any helpful action from the UN or the ‘international community’ was there a reasonable chance of its concerns being addressed? If such questions are honestly explored, a better and more nuanced understanding of the Russian invasion and its circumstances can emerge which can contribute much to policy. It will be helpful to also examine the situation from the perspective of the Russian leadership and people and their concerns, instead of taking only a west-centric position.
Then there is the question of what ‘victory’ in such a war can mean for Ukraine and its western supporters, when the other side always has the option of using nuclear weapons if pushed too much by many western countries playing a bigger and bigger role in providing weapons and other military assistance to Ukraine. At what stage the western supporting countries can get involved in a direct confrontation with Russia, and do the governments of western countries have their people’s mandate for such high risk situations? Cannot brinkmanship result sometimes in situations not planned for, and cannot high risk situations escalate even accidentally beyond control? Who sabotaged the prospects of peace at a very early stage of the Ukraine conflict? It will be very helpful for policy corrections if several eminent unbiased scholars of the west get together to explore these questions with complete honesty and in detail, and prepare publicly available reports based on such deliberations without much delay.
The main policy choice for western countries now is between continuing to forever supply more weapons to the Ukraine regime and pushing for ceasefire and peace as early as possible. Various aspects of this policy choice should be discussed, examining all evidence as well as the wider considerations of world peace, from a perspective of peace, justice and environment protection. All the above questions are also relevant to this. Another relevant aspect is an understanding of the nature of the current regime and controlling authorities in Ukraine, the most powerful forces here.
The most promoted version is that of highly patriotic forces of Ukraine trying to reclaim their territory. However there are disturbing questions that need to be explored. What is the extent of corruption in Ukraine? To what extent are neo-Nazi elements and forces becoming more and more powerful in Ukraine? To what extent have similar elements from other countries joined them? To what extent can this become a main center for such forces from several countries? To what extent are these elements armed? What is the extent of trafficking, smuggling, money-laundering and other crimes in Ukraine? What is the condition, safety and prospects of those who wish to raise their voice against such disturbing trends as the growing influence of neo-Nazi forces in Ukraine? To what extent is the national indebtedness of Ukraine increasing? To what extent is the control of a few oligarchs, super-rich and foreign/western interests increasing in land and resource ownership, directly and indirectly, and to what extent are the interests of ordinary people including farmers and workers being marginalized?
If a correct view of these issues emerges from the combined study of several scholars, then this will be very important for policy and policy corrections. Hence the democratic role of people and institutions contributing to policy corrections would also be fulfilled.
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The writer is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children, Earth without Borders, Man over Machine and A Day in 2071.

टिप्पणियाँ

ट्रेंडिंग

हिंदी आलोचना जैसे पिछड़ चुके अनुशासन की जगह हिंदी वैचारिकी का विकास जरूरी

- प्रमोद रंजन*   भारतीय राजनीति में सांप्रदायिक व प्रतिक्रियावादी ताकतों को सत्ता तक पहुंचाने में हिंदी पट्टी का सबसे बड़ा योगदान है। इसका मुख्य कारण हिंदी-पट्टी में कार्यरत समाजवादी व जनपक्षधर हिरावल दस्ते का विचारहीन, अनैतिक और  प्रतिक्रियावादी होते जाना है। अगर हम उपरोक्त बातों को स्वीकार करते हैं, तो कुछ रोचक निष्कर्ष निकलते हैं। हिंदी-जनता और उसके हिरावल दस्ते को विचारहीन और प्रतिक्रियावादी बनने से रोकने की मुख्य ज़िम्मेदारी किसकी थी?

ગુજરાતના સ્થાપના દિવસે યાદ કરીએ ભારતના વિશ્વપ્રસિદ્ધ ગુજરાતી પુરાતત્વવિદ્ ને

- ગૌરાંગ જાની*  આજે કોઈ ગુજરાતી એ કલ્પના પણ ન કરી શકે કે વર્ષ ૧૮૩૯ માં જૂનાગઢમાં જન્મેલા એક ગુજરાતી વિશ્વ પ્રસિદ્ધ બની શકે! પણ આપણે એ ગુજરાતીને કદાચ વિસરી ગયા છીએ જેમણે ગિરનારના અશોક શિલાલેખને દોઢસો વર્ષ પૂર્વે ઉકેલી આપ્યો.આ વિદ્વાન એટલે ભગવાનલાલ ઈન્દ્રજી. ૭ નવેમ્બર, ૧૮૩૯ ના દિવસે જૂનાગઢના પ્રશ્નોરા નાગર બ્રાહ્મણ પરિવારમાં તેમનો જન્મ થયો હતો. જૂનાગઢના એ સમયે અંગ્રેજી શિક્ષણની સગવડ ન હોવાને કારણે તેમને અંગ્રેજી ભાષાનું જ્ઞાન ન હતું પણ પાછળથી તેમણે ખપ પૂરતું અંગ્રેજી જાણી લીધું હતું.

Under Modi, democracy is regressing and economy is also growing slowly

By Avyaan Sharma*   India is "the largest democracy in the world", but now its democracy is regressing and its economy is also growing slowly. What has PM Modi's ten years in power brought us? Unemployment remains high. Joblessness is particularly high among India's youth - with those aged 15 to 29 making up a staggering 83% of all unemployed people in India, according to the "India Employment Report 2024", published last month by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute of Human Development (IHD). The BJP-led government did not provide jobs to two crore youth in a year as was promised by Modi in the run up to the 2014 general elections.

नफरती बातें: मुसलमानों में असुरक्षा का भाव बढ़ रहा है, वे अपने मोहल्लों में सिमट रहे हैं

- राम पुनियानी*  भारत पर पिछले 10 सालों से हिन्दू राष्ट्रवादी भारतीय जनता पार्टी (भाजपा) राज कर रही है. भाजपा आरएसएस परिवार की सदस्य है और आरएसएस का लक्ष्य है हिन्दू राष्ट्र का निर्माण. आरएसएस से जुड़ी सैंकड़ों संस्थाएँ हैं. उसके लाखों, बल्कि शायद, करोड़ों स्वयंसेवक हैं. इसके अलावा कई हजार वरिष्ठ कार्यकर्ता हैं जिन्हें प्रचारक कहा जाता है. भाजपा के सत्ता में आने के बाद से आरएसएस दुगनी गति से हिन्दू राष्ट्र के निर्माण के अपने एजेण्डे को पूरा करने में जुट गया है. यदि भाजपा को चुनावों में लगातार सफलता हासिल हो रही है तो उसका कारण है देश में साम्प्रदायिकता और साम्प्रदायिक मुद्दों का बढ़ता बोलबाला. इनमें से कुछ हैं राम मंदिर, गौमांस और गोवध एवं लव जिहाद. 

Laxmanpur Bathe massacre: Perfect example of proto-fascist Brahmanical social order

By Harsh Thakor  The massacre at Laxmanpur-Bathe of Jehanabad in Bihar on the night of 1 December in 1997 was a landmark event with distinguishing features .The genocide rightly shook the conscience of the nation in the 50th year of Indian independence. The scale of the carnage was unparalleled in any caste massacre. It was a perfect manifestation of how in essence the so called neo-liberal state was in essence most autocratic. 

ભારતમાં જિસસ ક્રાઈસ્ટના દર્શન, ખ્રિસ્તી ધર્મના આગમનને કારણે સમાજ વ્યવસ્થામાં પરિવર્તન

- ઉત્તમ પરમાર  મારી કિશોર અવસ્થામાં કેટલાક ચિત્રો અને મૂર્તિઓએ હૃદયમાં એવું સ્થાન જમાવ્યું છે કે આજદિન પર્યંત  ઉત્તરોઉત્તર વિકસતું જ રહ્યું છે. પ્રેમ કરુણાના મૂર્તિમંત અવતાર  જિસસ ક્રાઈસ્ટને વધુસ્તંભે ચઢાવેલી મૂર્તિ  મારી કોઈપણ ધર્મ વિશેની સમજ નહોતી ત્યારથી મારા હૃદયમાં સ્થાપિત થયેલી છે. મારા ઘરની દિવાલ પર વધસ્તંભે ચઢેલા જીસસની પ્રતિમા જોઈને કોઈ મને પૂછી બેસતું કે તું ક્રિશ્ચન છે?

रैंकिंग: अधिकांश भारतीय विश्वविद्यालयों का स्तर बहुत गिरा, इस साल भी यह गिरवाट जारी

- प्रमोद रंजन*  अप्रैल, 2024 में भारतीय विश्वविद्यालयों की अंतर्राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर उच्च रैंकिंग की चर्चा रही। मीडिया ने इसका उत्सव मनाया। लेकिन स्थिति इसके विपरीत है। वैश्विक विश्वविद्यालय रैंकिग में अच्छा स्थान मिलने की खबरें, कुछ संस्थानों को इक्का-दुक्का विषयों में मिले रैंक के आधार पर चुनिंदा ढंग से प्रकाशित की गईं थीं। वास्तविकता यह है कि हाल के वर्षों में हमारे अधिकांश विश्वविद्यालयों का स्तर बहुत गिर गया है। इस साल भी यह गिरवाट जारी रही है।

नोएडा में मैन्युअल स्कैवेंजर्स की मौत: परिवारों को मुआवजा नहीं, प्राधिकरण ने एफआईआर नहीं की

- अरुण खोटे, संजीव कुमार*  गत एक सप्ताह में, उत्तर प्रदेश में सीवर/सेप्टि क टैंक सफाई कर्मियों की सफाई के दौरान सेप्टिक टैंक में मौत। 2 मई, 2024 को, लखनऊ के वज़ीरगजं क्षेत्र में एक सेवर लाइन की सफाई करते समय शोब्रान यादव, 56, और उनके पत्रु सशुील यादव, 28, घटुन से हुई मौत। एक और घटना 3 मई 2024 को नोएडा, सेक्टर 26 में एक घर में सेप्टि क टैंक को सफाई करते समय दो सफाई कर्मचर्मारी नूनी मडंल, 36 और कोकन मडंल जिसे तपन मडंल के नाम से जानते हैं, की मौत हो गई। ये सफाई कर्मचर्मारी बंगाल के मालदा जिले के निवासी थे और नोएडा सेक्टर 9 में रहते थे। कोकन मडंल अपनी पत्नी अनीता मडंल के साथ रहते थे। इनके तीन स्कूल जाने वाले बच्चे हैं जो बंगाल में रहते हैं। नूनी मडंल अपनी पत्नी लिलिका मडंल और अपने पत्रु सजुान के साथ किराए पर झग्गी में रहते थे। वे दैनिक मजदरूी और सफाई कर्मचर्मारी के रूप में काम करते थे।

प्राचीन भारत के लोकायत संप्रदाय ने कुछ परजीवियों की खूब खबर ली: प्रमुख प्रस्थापनायें

- राणा सिंह   भारत में परजीवियों का एक विशाल समूह है जो बोलता है कि “सब कुछ माया है”,  लेकिन व्यवहार में यह समूह सारी जिंदगी इसी “माया” के पीछे पागल रहता है।  प्राचीन भारत के लोकायत संप्रदाय ने इन परजीवियों की खूब खबर ली थी।

बिहार के ऐतिहासिक विक्रमशिला विश्वविद्यालय के खंडहरों की परिक्रमा का रोमांचक अवसर

- सुमन्त शरण  कुछ दिन पहले एक सुदूर ग्रामीण अंचल (पीरपैंती)  से तकरीबन डेढ़-दो घंटे की दूरी पर अवस्थित ऐतिहासिक बौद्ध विक्रमशिला विश्वविद्यालय (के अवशेषों) की परिक्रमा का अवसर मिला। विक्रमशीला विश्वविद्यालय की स्थापना पाल वंश के राजा धर्मपाल ने की थी। 8वीं शताब्दी से 12वीं शताब्दी के अंत तक यह विश्वविद्यालय भारत के प्रमुख शिक्षा केंद्रों में से एक हुआ करता था। कहा जाता है कि यह अपने कुछेक अत्यंत अनूठे नवाचार के चलते उस समय नालंदा विश्वविद्यालय का सबसे बड़ा प्रतिस्पर्धी था। हालांकि, मान्यता यह भी है कि अल्प अवधि के लिए दोनों विश्वविद्यालय के बीच शिक्षण एवं प्रबंधन के क्षेत्रों में घनिष्ठ पारस्परिक संबंध एवं शिक्षकों के आदान-प्रदान का सिलसिला भी रहा था। यह विश्वविद्यालय तंत्रशास्त्र की पढ़ाई के लिए सबसे ज्यादा विख्यात था। इस विषय का एक सबसे विख्यात छात्र अतीसा दीपनकरा था, जो बाद में तिब्बत जाकर बौद्ध हो गया। इसके प्रथम कुलपति ज्ञान अतिस थे।