Skip to main content

Uranium costs escalate, supply uncertain, yet India plans 275,000 MW N-power by 2050

By Shankar Sharma* 

This has reference to a news report in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on a steep increasing trend in the price of uranium, which is required for nuclear power production, an already difficult scenario with regard to a steady supply of the fissile materials, and the stated/ implicit policy of the government to increase the number of nuclear power reactors in the country by an astonishing margin.
One such plan of the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), as reported in 2008, indicates an aspirational target of increasing the total nuclear power generating capacity in the country from the present level of about 7,000 MW to about 275,000 MW by 2050.
This scenario throws up multiple and very serious concerns for our communities.
With such a strategic plan for nuclear power capacity, since the known reserve of uranium ore in the country is projected to be sufficient to support only about 10,000 MW of nuclear capacity (as per the Integrated Energy Policy, 2011), India will have to depend on overseas technology and supply for most of its future plans, and hence its focus on "atma nirbharata" or self-sufficiency will have to be compromised.
In this context it should be critical to note that the latest CSIRO (Australia) report says that wind and solar are much cheaper than nuclear, even with added integration costs, and even for Australia, which is a major supplier of uranium.
With the credible assumption that this plan of DAE has not undergone any downward revision since 2008, there is a critical need for our country to diligently review the very nuclear power policy, before more of our meagre resources (financial as well as natural resources) are committed to increase the total nuclear power capacity.
As per a less known DAE document of 2008, "A Strategy for the Growth of Electricity in India”, the plan was to increase the nuclear power capacity in the country to about 275,000 MW by 2050. Even if we were to consider further this highly unrealistic plan, it will require about 390 nuclear reactors of average capacity of 700 MW.
The enormity of the task of constructing 368 additional reactors (22 are already operating) in the next 33 years should become evident when we compare the fact that only 22 nuclear reactors, were constructed in the duration of about 50 years.
Keeping in view the enormous quantities of water required for these reactors it is most likely that the future reactors will be on the coast. Even assuming that 4 reactors of 700 MW of capacity each will form a single nuclear project, the country’s 6,000 km coastline will have to be dotted with a nuclear power project at every 60 km.
Though this stupendously ambitious plan (may mean adding on an average 8,000 MW of nuclear power capacity every year during next 3 decades) sound hilarious to say the least, looking at what has happened in the last 50 years, it should be a matter of grave concern to our society because it indicates the determination of DAE to seek huge budgetary support to try and expand nuclear power capacity exponentially, and the scope for the denial of adequate financial resources to develop renewable energy sources which are the sustainable sources.
Allowing for an average of 1.5 sq km area around each reactor as a safety zone, 390 reactors may require a minimum of about 585 sq km area as a whole in addition to the vast stretches of land for dedicated transmission lines, and the associated mining/ milling operations.
The affordability of diverting such a vast land area for the nuclear power sector in a densely populated country should be another matter of concern requiring diligent approach. In this context, the very policy of DAE to plan for additional nuclear reactors must be satisfactorily explained to the public.
Even if SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) are to be considered for the future, as one proposal is before the DAE, all the concerns associated with large capacity nuclear reactors, such as unacceptable costs at societal level and risks, will remain with only varying magnitudes.
The credible risks associated with nuclear accidents can only increase exponentially, because to be of any true relevance to our power sector the nuclear power capacity from SMRs must be considerable, which means a large number of reactor locations, as compared to only about a few locations now.
A strong preference for SMRs shall mean, a lot more places in the country will become nuclear reactor sites, and hence, a vastly greater number of communities will face various risks and costs associated with nuclear radiation. Assuming that smaller reactors may reduce the risk and impact of accidents, even a very small reactor can undergo accidents that will result in significant radiation doses to members of the public.
Small Modular Reactors are credibly projected to cost more than the large size reactors for each unit of generation capacity
It should be emphasised that multiple reactors at a site, even if they are SMRs, can only increase the overall risk that an accident at one unit might either induce accidents at other reactors, or make it harder to take preventive actions at others.
As per a compilation of associated costs for various technologies in US, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its report “Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants”, 2016 has listed the capital cost of the advanced nuclear power plant as much higher than any other technology power plants.
8. In a study by Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), Finland, and the Energy Watch Group (EWG), Germany, under the title “Comparing electricity production costs of renewables to fossil and nuclear power plants in G20 countries”, the authors have established that the cost of nuclear power technology as in 2017 was the highest of all the known technologies, with solar and wind power technologies being the lowest in life cycle cost.
Lazard’s annual Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) analysis (version 11.0) has reported that the solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power costs have dropped an extraordinary 88% and 69% since 2009, respectively.
Meanwhile, coal and nuclear costs have increased by 9% and 23%, respectively. Even without accounting for current subsidies, renewable energy costs can be considerably lower than the marginal cost of conventional energy technologies.
SMRs are credibly projected to cost more than the large size reactors for each unit (megawatt) of generation capacity. They are also expected to generate less electrical energy per MW of designed capacity. This makes electricity from small reactors vastly more expensive.
Additionally, the low-carbon emission claims w.r.t to nuclear power technology has been challenged by many experts; especially because of the enormity of the challenges to deploy an adequate number of nuclear power reactors all over the planet in the next 10-20 years to make any substantial impact on climate change.
Since the Union government seems to be unduly influenced by the continuing and irrational advocacy on nuclear power by IAEA, it has to be ascertained as to why IAEA has not been able to avert three major nuclear disasters so far, and why it is not taking responsibility for the humongous societal level costs for these three nuclear disasters, and for all future nuclear disasters.
When we objectively consider all these and other issues from the true welfare perspective of our people, the associated costs, risks and uncertainties associated with nuclear power reactors, in whatever form and size, will be unacceptably high, and hence, cannot be a true electricity supply option; at least for India; especially when compared to other electricity supply technologies such as renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power technologies.
In this larger context, it can also be stated as a great dis-service to and even a serious let-down of our people if DAE decides to continue to pursue nuclear power policy for the country at humongous costs, risks and uncertainties, without satisfactorily addressing all the associated concerns of civil society groups, and by domain experts.
The fact that there has been no credible energy policy for the country, even though a draft National Energy Policy was circulated way back in 2017, should also indicate that NITI Aayog and the Ministry of Power have failed to objectively consider how our electricity/ energy needs can be met during the next 20-30 years; especially in the context of fast looming climate emergency.
In this context, a copy of my detailed representation to the Prime Minister in 2019 can provide one with a list of many more credible and serious concerns to our people.
Additionally, my email representation to AEC/ DAE (dated, 23rd December. 2018), and to IAEA (dated, 16th November 2023) the Union minister of state for atomic energy, as also AEC/PMO, should be able to provide a lot more details on various associated issues in order to persuade the Union government to take serious note of multiple concerns to our country.
The Union government should undertake a rigorous analysis of all the associated costs and benefits of nuclear power policy for India, in an objective comparison with all other electricity generation technologies available to our country, and review the electricity demand/ supply policy for the country, before committing our communities for the risks, costs and uncertainties associated with nuclear power reactors.
---
*Power & Climate Policy Analyst. This article is based on the author’s representation to Dr Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State, Department of Atomic Energy, New Delhi

Comments

TRENDING

Loktantra Bachao Abhiyan raises concerns over Jharkhand Adivasis' plight in Assam, BJP policies

By Our Representative  The Loktantra Bachao Abhiyan (Save Democracy Campaign) has issued a pressing call to protect Adivasi rights in Jharkhand, highlighting serious concerns over the treatment of Jharkhandi Adivasis in Assam. During a press conference in Ranchi on November 9, representatives from Assam, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh criticized the current approach of BJP-led governments in these states, arguing it has exacerbated Adivasi struggles for rights, land, and cultural preservation.

Promoting love or instilling hate and fear: Why is RSS seeking a meeting with Rahul Gandhi?

By Ram Puniyani*  India's anti-colonial struggle was marked by a diverse range of social movements, one of the most significant being Hindu-Muslim unity and the emergence of a unified Indian identity among people of all religions. The nationalist, anti-colonial movement championed this unity, best embodied by Mahatma Gandhi, who ultimately gave his life for this cause. Gandhi once wrote, “The union that we want is not a patched-up thing but a union of hearts... Swaraj (self-rule) for India must be an impossible dream without an indissoluble union between the Hindus and Muslims of India. It must not be a mere truce... It must be a partnership between equals, each respecting the religion of the other.”

A Marxist intellectual who dwelt into complex areas of the Indian socio-political landscape

By Harsh Thakor*  Professor Manoranjan Mohanty has been a dedicated advocate for human rights over five decades. His work as a scholar and activist has supported revolutionary democratic movements, navigating complex areas of the Indian socio-political landscape. His balanced, non-partisan approach to human rights and social justice has made his books essential resources for advocates of democracy.

Four J&K MLAs visit Wular lake, pledge support to fisher community, environmental conservation

By Shamim Ahmed*   In a historic meeting that highlighted both environmental and social concerns, four Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) visited Wular Lake to meet with the fisherfolk community, signaling a significant step in addressing their longstanding issues. This gathering, organized with the support of dedicated advocates, marks a strengthening of efforts to both safeguard the lake’s ecosystem and support the community’s welfare.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

Supreme Court’s dismissal of PIL on Covid vaccine safety is counter to known science and mathematics

By Bhaskaran Raman*  On 14 Oct 2024, the Supreme Court of India dismissed a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) on the side-effects of the Covid vaccine. In 2021, the world saw the rollout of various Covid vaccine candidates. In India, Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin and Serum Institute of India’s Covishield were rolled out. Covishield was nothing but Oxford’s AstraZeneca relabelled in India. The importance of open-minded and scientific probe of Covid vaccine safety In 2020/2021, all Covid vaccines were authorized for emergency use, which meant that the necessary efficacy and safety follow-up was incomplete at that time. The originally approved trials – called randomised controlled trials (RCT) had a “vaccine” group and a “placebo” group for comparison. Such experimental comparison/control is the cornerstone of the scientific method – which even children learn in photosynthesis experiments in class-1. The vaccine trials were scheduled to conclude in late 2022/early 2023. For instance, Covax...

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah  The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual. 

Right-arm fast bowler who helped West Indies shape arguably greatest Test team in cricket history

By Harsh Thakor*  Malcolm Marshall redefined what it meant to be a right-arm fast bowler, challenging the traditional laws of biomechanics with his unique skill. As we remember his 25th death anniversary on November 4th, we reflect on the legacy he left behind after his untimely death from colon cancer. For a significant part of his career, Marshall was considered one of the fastest and most formidable bowlers in the world, helping to shape the West Indies into arguably the greatest Test team in cricket history.

Will Left victory in Sri Lanka deliver economic sovereignty plan, go beyond 'tired' IMF agenda?

By Atul Chandra, Vijay Prashad*  On September 22, 2024, the Sri Lankan election authority announced that Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) alliance won the presidential election. Dissanayake, who has been the leader of the left-wing JVP since 2014, defeated 37 other candidates, including the incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) and his closest challenger Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya. 

Unlike other revolutionaries, Hindutva icon wrote 5 mercy petitions to British masters

By Shamsul Islam*  The Hindutva icon VD Savarkar of the RSS-BJP rulers of India submitted not one, two,or three but five mercy petitions to the British masters! Savarkarites argue: “There are no evidences to prove that Savarkar collaborated with the British for his release from jail. In fact, his appeal for release was a ruse. He was well aware of the political developments outside and wanted to be part of it. So he kept requesting for his release. But the British authorities did not trust him a bit” (YD Phadke, ‘A complex Hero’, "The Indian Expres"s, August 31, 2004)