Sudan is one of the most worrying conflict zones in the world today. During the past two years, war in Sudan has killed over 150,000 people and displaced another 12 million from their homes. There is a very serious humanitarian crisis here with the world's first officially declared famine since 2020.
What the world has been hearing most about Sudan in recent times is that the two military factions that suppressed the popular forces which overthrew the Omar al-Bashir dictatorship in 2019, have been engaged in a very destructive war against each other since April 2023. What the world has not heard much is that an important role in fuelling the conflict has been played by foreign forces which are motivated mainly by grabbing farmland and precious resources like gold. This neglected aspect has been exposed in a recent paper by GRAIN organization, which has a well-recognized worldwide reputation for its work on justice and sustainability aspects of food and farming.
In this paper titled ‘Land and Power Grabs in Sudan’ (dated 11 March, 2025) GRAIN says, “Both factions, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have committed mass atrocities against civilians and both are supported by foreign governments with interests in Sudan. The UAE has been more aggressive than any other outside actor. There is overwhelming evidence that it has played a major role in fuelling this brutal fight over resources, mainly by providing arms and other support to the RSF, which is accused of mass killings, sexual violence and ethnic cleansing against civilians. The UAE's top interest is Sudan's gold, but food is also a key priority. Over the past decade and a half, the country has been vying to seize control over farmland and water sources in Sudan to produce food for export.”
As the war raged, this paper tells us, two Emirati firms were farming over 50,000 hectares there. Shortly before the war broke out, a deal was signed between one of these companies and a group owned by one of Sudan’s wealthiest tycoons to develop an additional 162,000 ha of farmland in Abu Hamad, in the north. This massive farm project, backed by the UAE government, will be connected by a 500 km road to a new port on the coast of Sudan.
These deals, GRAIN informs us, are a part of about 1 million hectares of farmland that the Emirates has acquired around the world with a network of ports and logistics platforms, linked to security concerns as well. Much of this land is in Africa, where the UAE is now the largest source of foreign investment, GRAIN says. UAE companies have recently signed farmland deals with a long list of African countries that includes Egypt, Sierra Leone, Uganda and Angola. It's become a major player in acquiring African lands and forests for carbon credit schemes too.
On the other hand, this paper adds, the resistance committees and neighbourhood councils that remain at the forefront of the struggles for justice have articulated a clear path for how to assert people's control over their lands and food systems. This movement, known as the December Revolution, toppled the regime of Al-Bashir in 2019, but was violently suppressed by the SAF and RSF. Under the watch of these two military factions, the sell-off of Sudan's farmland and resources continued setting the stage for today's brutal war between them, says this analysis by GRAIN.
This important paper by GRAIN concludes, “The conflict tearing up Sudan is a dramatic example of how agricultural investments, often draped in the language of ‘food security’, can be part of broader power plays working against the interests and rights of local communities. GRAIN affirms its solidarity with the people of Sudan. We support local communities in Sudan and elsewhere in their struggle to defend their lands, waters and food sovereignty against land grabbing by the UAE and other foreign powers.”
What this short but important paper by GRAIN has stated deserves wider attention as such important but neglected aspects of conflicts and wars need to be brought out more clearly not only in the context of Sudan but in the context of other wars and conflicts as well. This will not only help us to have a better understanding of the real situation, but in addition efforts aimed at peace will also benefit from knowing what are the complex factors at work , and what are the kind of forces that can become true voices for peace and welfare of people. It is not just a question of supporting one faction or the other in the ongoing conflict, rather it is a question of carefully identifying people and forces who are committed to peace , justice and genuine welfare of people.
How big money foreign powers are taking rival sides in civil war
As the Sudan Civil War completes two years this month (in April 2025), it has already claimed nearly 150,000 human lives and displaced nearly 12 million people.
Unfortunately with big money foreign powers taking rival sides, this can increase supply of deadly weapons to both sides, resulting in heavier destruction.
Such a trend should be stopped with international pressure and instead sincere efforts for peace should increase.
There have been growing signs, confirmed by UN and US reports, that the UAE has been active on the side of one of the factions called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in various ways. The UAE has been accused of supplying weapons and other help to the RSF, in return for support for its ambitions of getting access to more farmland and other resources of Sudan.
Earlier the UAE had faced criticism for supporting rebel or secessionist groups in other countries including Yemen, Libya and Somalia with somewhat similar objectives.
In March this year the officially recognized government of Sudan filed a case against the UAE at the International Court of Justice, accusing the UAE of violating the Convention of Genocide by supporting RSF which in turn had been accused in reports of carrying out genocidal actions and ethnic cleansing in West Darfur region of Sudan.
Earlier in February this year (2025), the RSF had initiated the process of setting up a parallel administration for Sudan in Kenya, a provocative act that is seen as reducing the possibilities of national reconciliation and accentuating the civil war further. As it was around the same time that the UAE had given Kenya a loan of $1.5 billion, this economic assistance was linked by observers to securing the acceptance of Kenya for hosting this.
Meanwhile Saudi Arabia’s tensions with the UAE have been increasing over several economic and strategic issues, despite the two having been key allies in the not-too-distant past.
In Sudan the role of Saudi Arabia had been initially one of a mediator and peace-maker. More recently, however, it has appeared to emerge more strongly on the side of the SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces), the other military faction involved in the Sudan civil war which appears to be in a stronger position in the conflict at present. Saudi Arabia too hopes to get important benefits, particularly in terms of its food security, farmland and wider economic ambitions, from this support. SAF’s top leader visited Saudi Arabia very recently, resulting in a significant support and friendship agreement.
With the rival sides in Sudan being supported more clearly by two of the richest countries and regimes in the world, whose rulers moreover function in conditions of lower levels of accountability and transparency and hence can take more far-reaching decisions more quickly without being encumbered by too many restrictions and questions domestically, there is a risk that the kind of support that can result directly or indirectly in higher weapon supply and increased destruction may be extended. To some extent this has already happened, it appears from several reports.
In addition this increasing activity on the side of rival factions in Sudan can also escalate already simmering tensions between previous allies in the home turf of the already volatile middle-east region.
Hence there should be increased international efforts to check the possibility of foreign involvement in the Sudan civil war and support for rival factions leading to worsening of the Sudan civil war.
At the same time there should be increasing international efforts to stop the civil war and bring badly needed peace to the people of Sudan.
To bring Sudan closer to peace and to increase the possibility of durable peace, the forces and groups within Sudan who have shown signs of deep commitment to peace and justice must get more support to enable a wider and more assertive and significant role of them, instead of the situation here being seen mainly in terms of supporting this leading faction or the other.
Foreign powers should not use the existing conflict to enter into highly questionable arrangements with one or the other faction for resource or land grab. They should be under close scrutiny internationally to prevent or minimize such possibilities.
As the distress of people of Sudan has been increasing due to disruptions in the already inadequate humanitarian aid effort, the resources and efforts for this should be increased immediately to avoid or minimize deaths and distress relating to famine and related causes. This improvement of humanitarian aid effort should take place on the basis of urgency and on the basis of treating the present situation as a very big emergency. Bread not guns should be the basis of any foreign links and involvement with Sudan just now, given the extreme distress that has already been caused by the ongoing civil war, which has come on top of several other cycles of violence and destruction in recent decades.
Why is there need for urgent peace efforts to prevent new civil war
South Sudan is the youngest sovereign country in the world. It achieved its independent identity in 2011, having seceded from Sudan. This happened after Sudan had gone through two civil wars in recent decades.
However the new country, which had very high levels of poverty but also had considerable oil wealth to finance its transition to better times, was unfortunately engulfed in a civil war of its own very soon in 2013.
This continued for almost five years, involving several massacres, claiming 400,000 human lives and displacing nearly 4 million people, about one-third of the total population of the country. This left the country with even higher levels of poverty, with about two-thirds living in extreme poverty and many others perilously close to this.
Efforts to end the civil war resulted in a fragile but nevertheless widely welcomed agreement in 2020. This placed Mr. Kiir as the President and prominent opposition leader Mr. Machar as Vice-President. The first leader is from the majority Dinka ethnic group and the second leader is from the biggest minority Nuer group. There had been several ethnic clashes between the two in the civil war and it is important for the two leaders to stay together and help to end the ethnic hostilities on a more durable basis.
A serious humanitarian crisis has continued due to the longer-term impacts of the civil war’s devastation as well as the impacts of climate change in the form of adverse weather conditions and heat waves (including a very recent one). Unfortunately recent international developments have led to the availability of lesser humanitarian assistance than before.
At the same time the ability of the country to meet the needs of its people by using its own resources has declined very sharply in recent times. Oil exports have been the biggest source of earnings for the government but the landlocked country depended for this on the oil pipelines passing through Sudan. In the course of the two-year old and ongoing civil war in Sudan the oil pipelines were badly damaged and this led to a big decline in the oil export earnings of South Sudan.
This meant that the Kiir regime had much less resources to meet the needs of its people and in addition also to meet the patronage expenses that had to be incurred to keep the peace of various pressure groups and potential rebel groups.
Moreover the Kiir regime had to attempt to maintain a balanced relationship with the two main factions of the Sudan civil war. In practice in tune with changing circumstances the South Sudan regime found itself moving in favor of one faction or the other, only to incur the wrath of the other faction.
The latest turn has been for the Kiir regime to emerge closer to the faction of Sudan civil war called Rapid Support Forces (RSF). RSF is also reported to have aligned near the border areas with a rebel group having a wider reach and support base in South Sudan.
As the stronger SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces) faction of Sudan civil war seeks to assert control over these border areas, South Sudan can be sucked more closely and directly into the Sudan Civil War.
The chances of this increase further due to the possibility that (with the Kiir regime being seen to be closer in recent times to RSF) the SAF forces can seek to provide arms and support to minority ethnic groups and rebels belonging to South Sudan to rise against the Kiir regime.
Some observers have pointed out that this is already taking place, and the recent spurt in violence and rebellious actions in some parts of South Sudan like Nasir is also being seen at least in part as a reflection of this.
Given the recent history of ethnic violence, such provocative actions on the part of one ethnic group, and particularly the main minority group seen to be instigated by outsiders, can easily lead to even worse violence by the majority ethnic group. Such cycles of violence seen in the past can re-erupt again and must be stopped on the basis of urgency at an early stage. Unfortunately the political leadership of the country has not been able to live up to this responsibility in recent days.
Mr. Kiir has been reported to be in poor health in recent times. Instead of allowing his number two Mr. Machar to emerge as the more likely successor, he has instead promoted the prospects of another leader Mr. Bol Mel seen to be close to him.
Mr Machar has been recently placed under house arrest. As the two top leaders are seen to be representing two different ethnic groups, these political developments also have wider significance in terms of fuelling ethnic conflict.
Leaders of neighboring countries and African Union have taken some steps for peace. The United Nations with its significant presence in South Sudan can also contribute much to peace. Recently the United Nations has issue a warning regarding the increasing possibilities of South Sudan relapsing again into a civil war.
If in addition to the ongoing civil war in Sudan we have a civil war in South Sudan also this will greatly increase the high risks in this crisis-ridden region. Hence all forces of peace must make the maximum efforts they can to prevent the fast deteriorating situation in South Sudan as well as in Sudan.
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The writer is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Earth without Borders, A Day in 2071, Man over Machine-A Path to Peace, and Planet in Peril
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