Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from January, 2018

India's investment decline, at 8.5%, enters "exceptionally severe" phase: "Question mark" over Modi's Make in India

By Rajiv Shah
The “Economic Survey: 2017-18”, released by the Government of India a couple of days ago, has warned that the slowdown, having lasted at least five years, “has already surpassed the typical duration of slowdown episodes”, adding, “If it continued through 2017, as seems likely, it would have reached the six-year duration recorded in the exceptionally severe cases.”
Calling it a “balance sheet-related slowdown”, the top Union finance ministry document's chapter "Investment and Saving Slowdowns and Recoveries: Cross-Country Insights for India", says, “Many companies have had to curtail their investments because their finances are stressed, as the investments they undertook during the boom have not generated enough revenues to allow them to service the debts that they have incurred.”
Even as pointing out that “India’s investment decline so far (8.5 percentage points) has been unusually large” when compared to other countries’ “balance sheet cases”, the Survey st…

In PM's home district Mehsana, 20% teens, age 14-18, "not enrolled", one of the highest in India; 55% are wage earners

By Rajiv Shah
The new Annual Status of Education Report (ASER 2017: Beyond Basics), an annual survey carried by the high profile NGO Pratham, has found that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home district Mehsana has a whopping 20.3% children in the age group 14-18, who are not enrolled in either school or college.
While this is against the average of 14.4% children in this age group who have not been enrolled in a survey carried out in 28 Indian districts, as many as 21 of these districts were found to have a lower percentage of children in the "not enrolled" category.
Significantly, the survey also shows that a major consequence of not getting into formal education is prevalence of child labour in this age group. In Mehsana, as many as 54.5% of children in this age group were found to have "worked for 15 or more days in the last month" of the survey. This is against the all-India figure of 41.6%.
Only two districts out of 28 were found to have a higher percentage …

Congress' Patidar "support" went up by 15% during Gujarat polls, thanks to Hardik, yet BJP got 60% of community vote

By Rajiv Shah
Veteran social scientist Prof Ghanshyam Shah, quoting data from the post-poll survey carried out by the top Delhi-based institute, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), has said that, despite what seemed to be a huge Patidar upsurge ahead of the Gujarat state assembly elections under the leadership of young Hardik Patel, majority of the community voted for the BJP, though the party's voting share in the community did come down.
Talking with Counterview on Gujarat polls, which saw BJP's assembly strength come down from 115 in the 2012 state assembly elections to 99 this time, Shah said, "In 2017, the Congress got 36% of the upper caste votes, which is the highest ever since the BJP came to power in Gujarat in 1996", adding, "This time around 35% of the Patidars voted for the Congress, around 15% more than 2012 elections."
Pointing towards the reasons for the Congress "improvement", Shah said, this could be because, "…

India's investment proposals to be lowest since 2004-05 in fiscal 2017-18; just 60% of those in 2016-17, predicts CMIE

By Rajiv Shah
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the country's top independent consultant, has said that the fiscal 2017-18 "is likely to go down as the worst possible year for investments in India", predicting, "New investment proposals are likely to stabilise around Rs 8 trillion in 2017-18, which would be about 60 per cent of the new proposals made during 2016-17 and would be the lowest level since 2004-05."
Coming against the backdrop of the Government of India basking in the glory over "rise" in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the last quarter from 5.7% to 6.3%, the CMIE's fresh analysis, based on the data it has collected, says, "This would be the third consecutive year of a fall in new investments since they spiked momentarily in 2014-15. The difference is that the fall in 2017-18 would be sharper than in earlier years."
The CMIE further says, "Revival of projects that were shelved or abandoned earlier would likel…