India's investment proposals to be lowest since 2004-05 in fiscal 2017-18: CMIE

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the country's top independent consultant, has said that the fiscal 2017-18 "is likely to go down as the worst possible year for investments in India", predicting, "New investment proposals are likely to stabilise around Rs 8 trillion in 2017-18, which would be about 60 per cent of the new proposals made during 2016-17 and would be the lowest level since 2004-05."

Coming against the backdrop of the Government of India basking in the glory over "rise" in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the last quarter from 5.7% to 6.3%, the CMIE's fresh analysis, based on the data it has collected, says, "This would be the third consecutive year of a fall in new investments since they spiked momentarily in 2014-15. The difference is that the fall in 2017-18 would be sharper than in earlier years."
The CMIE further says, "Revival of projects that were shelved or abandoned earlier would likely add up to about Rs 1.2 trillion in 2017-18. This would be half of the revivals in 2016-17. Nevertheless, they assume greater importance now than ever before in the light of the fall in new investment proposals."
The CMIE continues, "Revived projects would account for nearly 15 per cent of new proposals in 2017-18. In 2016-17, they were 18 per cent of the value of all new projects. Till 2012-13, they were less than 10 per cent of new proposals". It adds, "Total investments made during the entire implementation of projects that would be completed during 2017-18 are likely to add up to a Rs 4 trillion. This is much smaller compared to Rs 6.3 trillion in 2016-17 and Rs 5.8 trillion in 2015-16."
Pointing out that the sum of Rs 4 trillion is "very small compared to the Rs 11 trillion worth of completions that were initially supposed to be commissioned during the year", the CMIE reveal, "Companies kept delaying their completion dates, and as a result, the estimates of completions during 2017-18 came down progressively during the year to Rs 9 trillion and then to Rs 7 trillion."

Mahesh Vyas

The analysis, by Mahesh Vyas is Managing Director and CEO of the CMIE, says, "The value of projects that get stalled, abandoned or shelved increased during 2017-18. In the first three quarters these added up to Rs 3.9 trillion which is the same as it was in the entire fiscal 2016-17." It adds, they are "slated to increase" to about Rs 6 trillion in fiscal 2017-18.
Noting that "another Rs 5.9 trillion worth of projects were dropped because of lack of any information on them for a very long time", the CMIE says, "Thus, the total attrition during the first three quarters was investments worth Rs 9.9 trillion", which could "cross Rs 14 trillion" in fiscal 2017-18.
In fact, according to the CMIE, "The ratio of projects attrition to accretion, i.e the ratio of projects stalled or dropped to the addition of projects because of new announcements or revival of old ones, is expected to rise sharply during 2017-18", adding, "Attrition would exceed accretions by over 50%... In the past, attrition of investments has never exceeded accretions."
Admitting that the "CMIE is somewhat conservative in announcing that a project is stalled", the analysis says, "Compared to the investments stalled, a much larger value of outstanding investments sits under the header 'Projects with no information, but live'. These amounted to Rs 15.8 trillion as of the end of December 2017 compared to accretions that amounted to Rs 9.9 trillion during the first three quarters ended December 2017."
Even as saying that "the pipeline of investments may quite big at Rs 182 trillion", thr CMIE does not fail to point out that "this pipeline hasn’t grown. It has, in fact, shrunk from its peak of Rs 185 trillion as of March 2017. Half of these outstanding projects have moved beyond the stage of mere announcements..."

Comments

Disappearing schools: India's education landscape undergoing massive changes

The other day, I received a message from education rights activist Mitra Ranjan, who claims that a whopping one lakh schools across India have been closed down or merged. This seemed unbelievable at first sight. The message from the activist, who is from the advocacy group Right to Education (RTE) Forum, states that this is happening as part of the implementation of the National Education Policy (NEP), 2020, which floated the idea of school integration/consolidation.

'Shameful lies': Ambedkar defamed, Godse glorified? Dalit leader vows legal battle

A few days back, I was a little surprised to receive a Hindi article in plain text format from veteran Gujarat Dalit rights leader Valjibhai Patel , known for waging many legal battles under the banner of the Council of Social Justice (CSJ) on behalf of socially oppressed communities.

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual. I don't know who owns this site, for there is nothing on it in the About Us link. It merely says, the Nashik Corporation site "is an educational and news website of the municipal corporation. Today, education and payment of tax are completely online." It goes on to add, "So we provide some of the latest information about Property Tax, Water Tax, Marriage Certificate, Caste Certificate, etc. So all taxpayer can get all information of their municipal in a single place.some facts about legal and financial issues that different city corporations face, but I was least interested in them." Surely, this didn't interest...

When a telecom giant fails the consumer: My Airtel experience

Initially, I was not considering writing this blog about why I found Airtel —one of India’s premier communication service providers—to have an outrageously poor sales and customer-service experience, at least in Ahmedabad , Gujarat ’s business capital. However, the last SMS I received from Airtel regarding my request for a Wi-Fi connection in my flat in the Vejalpur area left me stunned.

Varnashram Dharma: How Gandhi's views evolved, moved closer to Ambedkar's

My interaction with critics and supporters of Mahatma Gandhi, ranging from those who consider themselves diehard Gandhians to Left-wing and Dalit intellectuals, has revealed that in the long arc of his public life, few issues expose his philosophical tensions more than his shifting stance on Varnashram Dharma—the ancient Hindu concept that society should be divided into four varnas, or classes, based on duties and aptitudes.

RTI framework ‘nuked’? SHANTI Bill triggers alarm, grants centre sweeping secrecy powers

Has the Government of India finally moved to completely change important provisions of the Right to Information (RTI) Act, that too without bringing about any amendment in the top transparency law? It would seem so, if one is to believe well known civil society leaders' keen observations on the nuclear energy Bill passed in the Lok Sabha. Senior RTI activist Amrita Johri has sharply criticised the recently passed Sustainable Harnessing and Advancement of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India (SHANTI) Bill, 2025, saying that it has effectively “nuked” the Right to Information (RTI) Act through the back door.

From colonial mercantilism to Hindutva: New book on the making of power in Gujarat

Professor Ghanshyam Shah ’s latest book, “ Caste-Class Hegemony and State Power: A Study of Gujarat Politics ”, published by Routledge , is penned by one of Gujarat ’s most respected chroniclers, drawing on decades of fieldwork in the state. It seeks to dissect how caste and class factors overlap to perpetuate the hegemony of upper strata in an ostensibly democratic polity. The book probes the dominance of two main political parties in Gujarat—the Indian National Congress and the BJP—arguing that both have sustained capitalist growth while reinforcing Brahmanic hierarchies.

Punishing senior citizens? Flipkart, Shopsy stop Cash on Delivery in Ahmedabad!

The other day, someone close to me attempted to order some goodies on Flipkart and its subsidiary Shopsy. After preparing a long list of items, this person, as usual, opted for the Cash on Delivery (popularly known as COD) option, as this senior citizen isn't very familiar with online prepaid payment methods like UPI, credit or debit cards, or online bank transfers through websites. In fact, she is hesitant to make online payments, fearing, "I may make a mistake," she explained, adding, "I read a lot about online frauds, so I always choose COD as it's safe. I have no knowledge of how to prepay online."

Would breaking idols, burning books annihilate caste? Recalling a 1972 Dalit protest

A few days ago, I received an email alert from a veteran human rights leader who has fought many battles in Gujarat for the Dalit cause — both through ground-level campaigns and courtroom struggles. The alert, sent in Gujarati by Valjibhai Patel, who heads the Council for Social Justice, stated: “In 1935, Babasaheb Ambedkar burnt the Manusmriti . In 1972, we broke the idol of Krishna , whom we regarded as the creator of the varna (caste) system.”

Search This Blog