What led to AAP defeat in Delhi? Relying heavily on 'lower' classes, not 'general' public!

I was talking to a close acquaintance in Delhi about the recent, allegedly crushing, defeat of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). This person, once a great supporter of the India Against Corruption movement that led to AAP’s formation, said the main reason for the party’s defeat was that it "didn't do anything for the general public." According to him, this went against the party, which had ruled the state for three terms.

And what did he mean by "general public"? He didn't utter the words "upper castes", but this is exactly what he meant. In fact, he explained that only people from the "lower classes" had heavily voted for AAP because the party’s policies primarily benefited them. By "lower classes," he clarified, he meant Dalits, Other Backward Classes (OBCs), and migrants from other parts of India, especially Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, who had settled in Delhi, often in slums and poorer localities.

"For instance," he said, "who goes to government schools, which the AAP government improved significantly? Only the lower classes. The general public sends their children to private schools." He also argued that the so-called "freebies" provided by the AAP government—such as free electricity for up to 200 units—mainly benefited the lower classes, not the general public. "AAP did nothing for the general public", he underlined.

"As a result," he continued, "during the AAP government, the lower classes became emboldened—to the extent that they often clashed with the general public. This angered the general public, leading them to vote for the BJP." He linked this resentment to the government's failure to clean up the Yamuna River, which, according to him, was a major demand of the general public.

When asked whether the BJP would continue the freebies introduced by AAP, he said, "They have promised to do so. If they remove them, they will face the same fate as AAP. The Union budget announcement during the elections, increasing the no-tax income threshold from ₹7 lakh to ₹12 lakh, was a boon for the general public."

He added that other factors contributing to AAP’s defeat included the poor condition of roads, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s allegedly extravagant residence, erratic drinking water supply, corruption charges against AAP leaders—especially the liquor scam—and the party’s promise to give ₹2,100 per month to poor women, which was outmatched by the BJP’s offer of ₹2,500.

When asked whether the arrest of three key AAP leaders—Kejriwal, Somnath Bharti, and Satyendar Jain—who were responsible for improving education and healthcare services had led to governance paralysis and contributed to AAP's defeat, he replied, "This is what AAP leaders are claiming."

However, during our 45-minute conversation, he did not mention how the Narendra Modi government had stripped the Delhi government of significant powers. The Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (Amendment) Act, 2023, curtailed the Delhi government’s authority while increasing the control of the Lieutenant Governor (LG) and the Central government over Delhi’s administration.

The law established an authority to oversee the transfers and postings of Delhi government officials, with the LG having the final say—even if the elected government disagreed. As a result, the Delhi government lost control over services, appointments, and bureaucratic transfers, while the Delhi Assembly’s legislative powers in these matters were significantly curtailed.

This law was introduced following a May 2023 Supreme Court ruling that stated the Delhi government should have control over services (except police, public order, and land). The Central government overrode this ruling, arguing that since Delhi is a Union Territory, it cannot have full state-like powers. AAP strongly opposed the law, calling it a violation of federal principles.

The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), which conducted an extensive analysis of caste dynamics in Delhi's electoral politics, supports this person’s observations. Conducted jointly with Lokniti, the survey found that the BJP secured high vote shares among so-called upper castes: Brahmins (66%), Vaishyas (66%), Punjabi Khatris (67%), and Rajputs (60%). 

Additionally, the party received significant backing from OBCs (55%), excluding Gujjars and Yadavs, where its vote share was relatively lower. However, BJP's support among Muslims (15%) and Valmikis (25%) remained weak.

Meanwhile, AAP’s core voter base included Valmikis (67%), Jatavs (59%), and Muslims (65%). Other likely AAP voters included migrants, mainly Purvanchalis from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, who constitute about 25% of Delhi’s population.