Indus water treaty suspension 'overlooks' crisis ravaging the basin: climate change

By Rajiv Shah

A top environment expert Parineeta Dandekar, in a detailed piece on a site dedicated to water-related issues, has warned that amidst the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) suspension, the more immediate crisis already ravaging the Indus basin is climate change. This has been overlooked. Already, it has claimed lives, displaced communities, and disrupted livelihoods on both sides of the border through recurring disasters and shifting hydrology, particularly in the Chenab basin.

Basing on fieldwork in October-November 2024 across the Chenab basin, community interviews, government reports, and scientific studies, the expert says there are concerns related to climate change impacts, water security, hydropower development, and governance, and there is reason to question the wisdom of pursuing more dams in this vulnerable region.

She notes, as a western river with the most hydropower projects in India, Chenab is critical. Here, hastily advancing dam construction, bypassing essential studies, ignoring local protests, and overlooking disaster risks would prove perilous.

The expert, in her article with inputs from Himanshu Thakkar, states, the Chenab river, formed by the Chandra and Bhaga rivers in Lahaul and Spiti, Himachal Pradesh, is allocated to Pakistan under IWT, with India allowed limited consumptive and unlimited non-consumptive use.

The basin’s glaciers, vital for water security, are retreating rapidly. Studies estimate a 33.3% reduction in glacial volume from 1960 to 2005. With 50% of Chenab’s flow at Akhnoor derived from meltwater, this loss threatens both nations. Glacial melt supports 60% of irrigation in the Indus basin, making glacier health critical.

She notes that, as a western river with the most hydropower projects in India, the Chenab is critical. However, hastily advancing dam construction—bypassing essential studies, ignoring local protests, and overlooking disaster risks—would prove perilous.

The expert, in her article with inputs from Himanshu Thakkar, highlights that the Chenab River, formed by the Chandra and Bhaga rivers in Lahaul and Spiti, Himachal Pradesh, is allocated to Pakistan under the IWT, with India allowed limited consumptive and unlimited non-consumptive use. The basin’s glaciers, vital for water security, are retreating rapidly: studies estimate a 33.3% reduction in glacial volume between 1960 and 2005. With 50% of Chenab’s flow at Akhnoor derived from meltwater, this loss directly threatens both India and Pakistan. Glacial melt supports around 60% of irrigation in the entire Indus Basin.

She details specific vulnerabilities:

Bhaga River, originating near Surajtal Lake, hosts 306 glaciers storing approximately 15 billion tons of water. Between 1971 and 2020, glacier areas shrank significantly, with deglaciation rates doubling (0.25% per year). Rising temperatures (+1.14°C between 1961–2015) and declining precipitation since the 1990s have accelerated ice loss. Small glaciers (<1 km²) are at risk of extinction.
A 2018 glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) near Zingzingbar and frequent floods and landslides underline the region’s vulnerability.
The proposed 300 MW Gyspa Hydropower Project, which would submerge 1,260 hectares and four villages, faces strong local opposition.
The Chandra Basin, covering 2,440 km² with 200 glaciers, has seen a 33% projected ice volume loss by the 2050s, with low-altitude glaciers potentially losing up to 97% of their volume by 2100.
Samudra Tapu Lake expanded 905% between 1965 and 2022 (from 14.19 ha to 142.69 ha). A full breach could release 17,342 m³/s, threatening settlements and the planned 126 MW Chhatru Hydropower Project.
Bara Shigri Glacier, the largest in Himachal Pradesh, lost 4 km² over the last century, with a 650-meter snout retreat recorded between 1977 and 1995. Over 60 supraglacial lakes on the glacier increase the risk of GLOFs.
Ghepan Gath Glacier and Lake expanded 178% (from 36.49 ha to 101.30 ha) between 1989 and 2022, threatening Sissu village.

In villages like Tandi and Tholang, drying springs and reduced snowfall have forced communities to rely on river-based lift irrigation, escalating upstream-downstream conflicts. Over 70% of residents surveyed in Lahaul-Spiti reported dried water sources and increasingly extreme weather events.

Despite these risks, three large hydropower projects—104 MW Tandi, 130 MW Rashil, and 175 MW Bardang—are proposed between Tandi and Udaipur. Strong local protests, led by groups like the Save Lahaul Spiti Society, highlight fears of climate disasters, loss of fertile land, and unstable nallahs like Jahlma causing landslides.

Other threatened areas include:

Miyar Nallah, with 156 glacial lakes and 120 glaciers, facing devastating floods in 2013, 2014, 2017, 2023, and 2024. The 120 MW Miyar Hydropower Project, cleared in 2012, sparked controversy due to ignored GLOF risks.
Pangi Valley, where a cascade of projects near Kadu Nallah threatens settlements with an expanding glacial lake formed around 2010.
In Jammu and Kashmir’s Chenab Basin, Mundiksar Lake in Kishtwar expanded 150% between 1980 and 2020, posing risks to major downstream hydropower projects like Bursar and Pakal Dul.

Recent floods near the Baglihar Hydropower Project further highlight the urgency of reconsidering development plans in this fragile landscape, says Dandekar.

She concludes that India's preparedness for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) remains inadequate, with minimal studies or governance frameworks addressing the hydropower-climate risk nexus. She insists that given the Chenab basin’s seismic activity, high disaster vulnerability, and projected climate impacts, rigorous, transparent, and community-centric planning must take precedence over geopolitical or economic motives.

Comments

From snowstorms to heatwaves: India’s alarming climate shift in 2025

By Dr. Gurinder Kaur* Climate change is no longer a future concern—it is visibly affecting every country today. Since the beginning of 2025, its effects on India have become starkly evident. These include unseasonal snowfall in hill states, the early onset of heatwaves in southern regions, a shortening spring season, and unusually early and heavy rainfall, among other phenomena.

'Incoherent, dogmatic': Near collapse of international communist movement

By Harsh Thakor* The international communist movement today lacks coherence or organizational unity. Many groups worldwide identify as communist, Marxist-Leninist, or Maoist, but most promote dogmatism, reformism, or capitulation, using revolutionary rhetoric. Some trace their origins to historical betrayals, like Trotsky’s efforts to undermine the Soviet socialist transition or the 1976 coup in China that restored a bourgeoisie under Deng Xiaoping. Others focus on online posturing rather than mass engagement. Small communist organizations exist in places like Turkey, South Asia, and the Philippines, where Maoist-led struggles continue. No international forum unites them, and no entity can forge one.

Priced out of life: The silent crisis in India's healthcare... who pays attention, and who takes responsibility?

By Aysha* Manisha (name changed) has been living with a disease since the birth of her third child—over ten years now—in the New Seemapuri area of North East Delhi. She visited GTB Hospital, where a doctor told her that treatment would cost ₹50,000, as the hospital would charge for the cost of an instrument that needs to be implanted in her body. Several NGOs have visited her home, yet she has received no support for treatment and continues to live with the illness. Manisha is divorced, without access to ration or pension, and lives with her three children by begging outside a temple.

Madhya Pradesh village's inspiring example of how small budget effort conserves water amidst heat wave

By Bharat Dogra Heat waves have been intensifying over vast areas of India in recent days and there are also many reports of water scarcity making the conditions worse for people. However the situation can differ significantly in various villages depending on whether or not significant water conservation efforts have been made. In recent years I have visited several villages of good water conservation efforts where I noticed that even at the time of adverse weather conditions, people of these villages as well as farm and other animals feel important relief in terms of access to adequate water. Due to water and moisture conservation, conditions of farms and pastures is also much better. What is more, with the participation and involvement of people, even quite low budgets have been utilized well to achieve very useful and durable results.

Population explosion: India needs a clear-headed policy, data-driven governance, long-term planning

By N.S. Venkataraman* At the upcoming G7 summit in Canada, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited as a special guest, with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau citing two main reasons: India’s rise as the world’s fifth-largest economy and its status as the most populous nation. While economic growth is undoubtedly a point of pride, the latter distinction—India’s population—raises an important question: should this be seen as a strength or a source of growing concern? India has not conducted a national census since 2011, leaving the current population figures largely speculative. Estimates place the population at around 1.4 billion, with projections reaching 1.8 billion by 2050. Despite modest declines in fertility and death rates, the annual population growth remains between 1.5% and 2%. The next census, scheduled for 2026, will provide a more accurate demographic picture, but until then, policymaking remains uninformed by crucial data. Over the past eleven years, the gov...

Victim to cricketing politics, Alvin Kalicharan was a most organized left handed batsman

By Harsh Thakor* On March 21st Alvin Kalicharan celebrates his 75th birthday. Sadly, his exploits have been forgotten or overlooked. Arguably no left handed batsman was technically sounder or more organized than this little man. Kalicharan was classed as a left-handed version of Rohan Kanhai. Possibly no left-handed batsmen to such a degree blend technical perfection with artistry and power.

Vishwamitri river revival? New report urges action on pollution, flood risks, wildlife protection

By A Representative The Vishwamitri Committee, formed by the Gujarat State Human Rights Commission, has submitted two supplementary reports on June 5, 2025, detailing efforts to rejuvenate the Vishwamitri River in Vadodara, considered Gujarat's cultural capital. The reports (click here and here ) respond to directives from a May 26, 2025, GSHRC hearing. Comprising environmentalists, urban planners, and zoologists like Neha Sarwate, Rohit Prajapati, Dr. Ranjitsinh Devkar, Dr. Jitendra Gavali, and Mitesh Panchal, the committee focuses on mitigating pollution, stabilizing riverbanks, managing flood risks, and preserving biodiversity, particularly for crocodiles and turtles.

Mumbai jetty project: Is Colaba residential associations' outrage manufactured?

By Gajanan Khergamker When the Maharashtra Maritime Board (MMB) filed an affidavit before the Bombay High Court defending its long-planned public jetty project, it did more than just respond to a writ petition by a Colaba Residents Association. It exposed, albeit inadvertently, a far more corrosive phenomenon festering beneath the surface of urban civil life across India—a phenomenon where residential associations, many unregistered and some self-professed custodians of ‘public sentiment,’ conspire to stall governance under the veil of representation.

Central London discussion to spotlight LGBTQ+ ex-Muslim rights and persecution

By A Representative On June 13, 2025, the Dissident Club in Central London will host a public discussion to mark the 18th anniversary of the Council of Ex-Muslims of Britain (CEMB) and to commemorate World Refugee Day. The event, scheduled from 7:00 to 9:00 pm, will feature speakers Ali Malik, Maryam Namazie, and Taha Siddiqui, who are expected to address the intersecting challenges faced by LGBTQ+ ex-Muslims globally.

Search This Blog