'Earth system at risk': Scientists call for immediate ‘Nature Positive’ action to halt biodiversity collapse

A landmark scientific paper published in Frontiers in Science warns that humanity is actively destabilizing the Earth system upon which all life depends, and issues an urgent call for a coordinated global "Nature Positive" (NP) strategy to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030.

The comprehensive analysis, led by conservation strategist Harvey Locke (now deceased) and an international team of 11 scientists from leading institutions including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Cornell University, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, argues that current economic systems driving production and consumption are causing "rapid and catastrophic decline in biodiversity" while simultaneously disrupting the climate system.

A Planet Under Pressure

The paper presents stark statistics: 48% of vertebrate and insect species are in decline, 54% of the world's ecoregions are severely degraded, and 44% of species tracked by the Convention on Migratory Species are in serious decline. Freshwater vertebrate populations have declined by an average of 83%.

"Human activities are driving a global decline in biodiversity and are interfering with the natural processes essential for human well-being," the authors write. "Achieving climate and development goals is impossible without keeping nature intact."

Co-author Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, notes that humanity has now transgressed seven of nine planetary boundaries that regulate Earth system stability – including the core boundaries of biodiversity and climate.

The Three Conditions Framework

The paper introduces a practical framework for implementing conservation actions based on three "conditions" of human impact:

- C3 – Large Wild Areas (26% of terrestrial world): Areas with very low human impact that must be kept intact, including maintaining at least 80% tropical forest cover to preserve rainfall generation.

- C2 – Shared Lands (55%): Areas ranging from slightly to less than half transformed, requiring retention of all native vegetation and restoration of natural flows.

- C1 – Cities and Farms (18%): Heavily transformed landscapes where all remaining fragments of primary ecosystems should be secured and at least 20% native vegetation restored.

The authors extend this framework to marine environments for the first time, noting that approximately 13% of the open ocean remains "marine wilderness."

Hydrological Systems: A Critical Gap

A major finding is that the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) – the primary international agreement on nature – fails to address hydrology, a "major omission" according to the authors.

"Freshwater regimes, unimpeded riverine connectivity, and unpolluted water are of such significance that maintaining or restoring hydrological processes... is the most important NP action for a disproportionately wide variety of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine organisms," the paper states.

The authors highlight that dams built for "green energy" are highly nature-negative. They point to successful dam removals on Washington State's Elwha River – where ecological recovery occurred rapidly – and on the Klamath River system, where salmon returned within two weeks of dam removal.

Tropical Rainforests at Tipping Points

The paper warns that the Amazon Basin is already about 17% deforested, with irreversible transition to savannah-like vegetation possible if forest cover loss continues. The southeastern Amazon has already become a carbon source to the atmosphere.

"The Amazon provides rain to the La Plata Basin, the most productive agricultural area in South America, and as far away as Texas," the authors note. "Loss of this rainfall potentially threatens large-scale food security."

Co-author Carlos Peres from the University of East Anglia emphasizes that maintaining 75-80% forest cover in the Amazon is critical for moisture recycling that generates a significant portion of the region's own rainfall.

Human Health Connections

The paper establishes direct links between biodiversity loss and human disease emergence. Ecological disruptions have already contributed to outbreaks of Ebola, Marburg, and mpox.

"Declines in species diversity can increase the number of zoonotic disease-carrying species," the authors write, while ecosystem disruption "elevates the likelihood of pathogen spillover from stressed wildlife to humans directly or to livestock and then on to humans."

Co-author Raina Plowright from Cornell University argues that preserving intact nature is "the most cost-effective and equitable means of preventing zoonotic spillover," yet current public health strategies prioritize biomedical interventions over ecological prevention.

Indigenous Knowledge and Economic Transformation

The paper emphasizes that Indigenous and local knowledge systems, "which are rooted in responsibility to the living world and inherently include awareness of biotic and abiotic processes, is essential to achieving the NP goal."

Co-author Leroy Little Bear from the University of Lethbridge, a leading Indigenous scholar, notes that many ethnocultural traditions view humans as "embedded ecological participants with relational responsibilities to live in balance and harmony with a dynamic natural world."

The authors call for fundamental economic transformation, noting that half of global economic activity depends directly on nature, and that US$7 trillion in annual nature-negative financial flows must be redirected.

A Path Forward

The paper concludes that achieving the NP goal of halting and reversing nature loss by 2030 – with net improvement from a 2020 baseline – "is essential for the well-being of humanity and the rest of life."

"It is time for us to recognize that nature is the foundation of all human affairs," the authors write. "Unless we act swiftly to make the world NP by 2030, our lives are likely to become very difficult in a destabilized Anthropocene."

The paper was published with open access and has been reviewed by independent experts including Brendan Mackey of Griffith University and Carlos Alfredo Joly of the State University of Campinas, Brazil.