World Bank: 70% of workers trapped in no-learning jobs as human capital stagnates globally

A new report released by the World Bank has delivered a sobering assessment of global human capital development, finding that progress has stalled or reversed across much of the developing world. The report, Building Human Capital Where It Matters, quantifies how deficits in nutrition, learning, and employment can erase 51% of future earnings in low- and middle-income countries, while exposing stark inequities rooted in the settings where people live, learn, and work.

A "Shocking Lack of Progress" in Key Outcomes

The report opens with a blunt assessment: despite rising incomes and reductions in poverty, two-thirds of low- and middle-income countries have experienced a decline in health, learning, or on-the-job skill development over the past 15 years. 

Student learning—measured by harmonized test scores—has remained stagnant in low- and lower-middle-income countries, and in most cases, scores are even worse today than in 2010. The largest declines have been observed in Sub-Saharan Africa, where countries like Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Madagascar, and Chad have seen dramatic drops in learning outcomes. 

Health indicators paint an equally troubling picture. Average adult height—a key marker of population health—has declined in many places. In several Sub-Saharan African countries, adults are shorter today than they were 25 years ago, signaling a deterioration in underlying health conditions. 

Inequity Begins at Home: The Maternal Education Gap

The report identifies the home as the first and most decisive setting where human capital inequities take root. Children whose mothers have more education consistently outperform their peers in vocabulary and mathematics—and these gaps emerge before the age of five and remain constant throughout childhood and adolescence. 

Longitudinal data from Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Viet Nam reveal that gaps in early vocabulary and mathematics among children of mothers with different education levels are initially large—18 to 29 percentiles—and "remain virtually constant throughout childhood and adolescence at a time when most children have attended some school." 

Cross-sectional data from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Thailand further illustrate the gradient: in Afghanistan, 47.6% of children under five are stunted when their mothers have less than primary education, compared to just 13.1% when mothers have some tertiary education. Mathematics proficiency shows a similarly stark divide. 

Crucially, the report finds that resources alone are not sufficient to close these gaps. "Resources do not always compensate for low levels of care," the authors note, emphasizing that nurturing, reading, playing, and emotional support are vital components that money cannot always buy. 

Neighborhood Inequality: Where You Grow Up Determines Your Future

The report delivers one of its most striking findings on neighborhood effects, using Brazil as a case study. A low-income child growing up in a low-income neighborhood will go on to earn half as much as a low-income child growing up in a high-income neighborhood. 

The data from Brazil reveals that children from low-income households who grow up in neighborhoods with fewer low-income parents achieve dramatically better adult outcomes:

- Years of schooling: Nearly 12 years versus fewer than 10

- Probability of formal employment: Over 80% versus roughly 55%

- Probability of earning more than their parents: Over 60% versus under 30%

- Income at ages 25–29: R26,500 versus R13,500—exactly double 

"Families with the same income can have completely different outcomes based on where they live," the report states, underscoring that neighborhood effects extend beyond access to schools and clinics to include violence, pollution, and social norms that limit human capital accumulation. 

Workplace Inequities: Most Workers Trapped in Jobs with No Learning

The workplace emerges as the third critical setting where inequities are entrenched. In low- and middle-income countries, approximately 70% of workers are employed in small-scale agriculture, low-quality self-employment, or micro firms—jobs that typically offer limited on-the-job learning opportunities. In low-income countries, this figure rises to 80%. 

The occupational divide is equally stark. In low- and lower-middle-income countries, 71% of all employed people work in agricultural, domestic, or manual occupations, while only 13% are technicians, professionals, or managers. In high-income countries, the pattern is nearly reversed. 

Returns to experience reveal deep inequities within the labor market. In India, the annualized returns to experience after five years are 6.5% for wage workers but only 3.8% for the self-employed—roughly half. In China, the gap is similar: 5.5% for wage employment versus 2.2% for self-employment. Data from Brazil shows that wages increase by twice as much for workers in large firms compared to small firms. 

The Gender Divide: Women and Youth Left Behind

The report highlights that women and youth are especially affected by these trends. Only 40% of women are in paid employment in low- and middle-income countries, and nearly one in five young people are neither working nor studying. 

Approximately 50% of working-age women in low- and lower-middle-income countries are not participating in the labor force, compared with just 7% of men. In the Middle East and North Africa, female non-participation reaches 79%; in South Asia, it stands at 63%. 

Sierra Leone's Minister of Basic and Senior Secondary Education, speaking at the report's launch, emphasized that "unequal opportunities between men and women remains one of the biggest challenges for us to achieve human capital at country level," citing harmful gender norms that limit women's access to education, safety, and economic opportunity from the home through the workplace. 

Global Inequality in Human Capital Investment

The disparities in human capital investment are staggering when viewed across regions. While the World Bank report focuses on settings, complementary data from the World Inequality Report 2026 reveals the scale of spending gaps: average education spending per child in Sub-Saharan Africa stands at just €220 (PPP), compared with €7,430 in Europe and €9,020 in North America and Oceania—a gap of more than 1 to 40, approximately three times the gap in per capita GDP. 

The World Bank's Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) quantifies the consequences: 51% of future earnings in low- and middle-income countries can be lost when there are deficits in nutrition, learning, or employment. 

Policy Recommendations: Investing Where It Matters

The report argues that reversing these trends requires a fundamental rethinking of human capital policy. While traditional investments in schools and health clinics remain essential, they are insufficient. The authors call for accelerated investment across three settings:

At home: Cash transfers for poor families, job programs, and tools to help parents create stimulating and nurturing environments. Evidence suggests these programs can improve adult earnings by nearly 40%. 

In neighborhoods: Coordinated action across education, environment, and infrastructure sectors to improve service quality, safety, and access to opportunity.

At work: Support for employer-provided training, job platforms, apprenticeships, and policies to increase women's workforce participation through childcare investment and safe commuting. 

The World Bank's report delivers an urgent message: human capital is not built in sectors alone, but in the daily settings where people live. The evidence of stagnation, reversal, and deep inequity is overwhelming—from children in Sub-Saharan Africa whose test scores have plummeted, to low-income Brazilian youth whose neighborhoods determine whether they will earn half or double their parents' income, to the billions of workers trapped in jobs that offer no pathway to skill development.

"Human capital—the health, knowledge, and skills of people—is what people need to thrive," the report concludes. "Building human capital is not only about what we do. It is also about where we do it." 

Without immediate, integrated action across homes, neighborhoods, and workplaces, the report warns, low- and middle-income countries will continue to fall further behind—with consequences that will shape economic outcomes and life chances for generations to come.