Ahmedabad world’s least climate resilient major city: AlphaGeo study

 

A new study has ranked Ahmedabad as the least climate-resilient major city in the world, highlighting a dangerous gap between the city’s extreme physical vulnerability to climate hazards and its capacity to adapt. Cited by The New York Times, the analysis, conducted by geospatial artificial intelligence firm AlphaGeo, places the Indian city at the top of a list of global urban centres most exposed to climate risk.

The report, How Climate Resilient Are the World’s Largest Cities?, evaluated 72 of the world’s largest cities using AlphaGeo’s proprietary Climate Risk & Resilience Index (CRRI). The index distinguishes between raw physical exposure to hazards such as flooding, heat stress and drought and a “resilience-adjusted risk” score, or RAJ, which measures residual risk after accounting for a city’s adaptation measures.

Ahmedabad received a RAJ score of 41, the highest among all cities analysed, driven largely by extreme heat exposure. It was joined by other South Asian cities—including Hyderabad, Pakistan (41), Multan (38), Dhaka (36), Kolkata (35) and Lahore (35)—in forming a cluster facing what the report describes as a “compounding crisis” of immense physical risk combined with only moderate adaptation performance.

According to the study, “geography is not destiny,” as cities with similar physical-risk scores can diverge significantly in their RAJ scores depending on the adaptation measures they have put in place. However, the report notes that in South Asia, “mispriced risk is concentrated,” with cities recording high residual-risk scores while “adaptation rates remain comparatively low relative to the scale of physical exposure.”

The findings are particularly striking in Ahmedabad, which has often been cited as a pioneer in climate adaptation. The city implemented South Asia’s first heat action plan following a deadly heatwave in 2010. While such plans have been credited with saving lives, the AlphaGeo study indicates that current resilience investments are not keeping pace with escalating physical threats.

Other research on Ahmedabad supports this assessment, finding that although the city’s Heat Action Plan claims to be effective in reducing mortality, it continues to operate within a largely “technocratic framework.” Parag Khanna, CEO of AlphaGeo, noted that many South Asian cities are built in valleys and other areas prone to flooding—often the lowest points where water naturally flows.

In stark contrast to South Asian cities, the study identified Chicago as the most resilient major city globally, with a RAJ score of 8, benefiting from relatively low coastal-hazard exposure and robust infrastructure. Other top performers included Addis Ababa (10), Melbourne (11), Barcelona (11), Buenos Aires (12), Paris (12), Nairobi (13) and London (15).

Significantly, the analysis highlighted Chinese megacities as “adaptation efficiency leaders,” with Beijing, Tianjin and Shenzhen all achieving adaptation rates above 46%. This indicates that they are offsetting nearly half of their physical climate risk through investment and policy measures.

The AlphaGeo report serves as a critical benchmark for policymakers, investors and regulators. It warns that for asset owners and managers, a high RAJ score “sets a residual risk floor—the exposure that current adaptation cannot absorb,” requiring rigorous underwriting that accounts for structural vulnerabilities.

For countries with high-risk cities such as Ahmedabad, the study implies growing contingent liabilities arising from disaster response and infrastructure repair. The report’s findings, based on data as of 2025, highlight the urgency for cities like Ahmedabad to close their adaptation gap and move from being symbols of pioneering climate initiatives to examples of effective, large-scale resilience.

The Ahmedabad experience presents a stark paradox. The city pioneered a Heat Action Plan that has been held up by the Government of India as a model for climate adaptation across India. On paper, the framework appeared impressive: heat alerts, cooling centres, reflective roofs, public-health advisories and a range of other interventions have created the appearance of a comprehensive adaptation strategy.

But the AlphaGeo ranking raises a more uncomfortable question: how much of this resilience exists beyond policy documents and official claims?

For residents, the reality is considerably less reassuring. Ahmedabad continues to experience sprawling concrete development, inadequate tree cover in many neighbourhoods, heat-trapping roofs and surfaces, disappearing natural drainage channels and chronic waterlogging during intense rainfall. 

The benefits of adaptation measures are also far from evenly distributed. The city’s poorest residents—many of whom live in densely built areas with limited access to cooling, shade and reliable infrastructure—remain particularly exposed.