Skip to main content

Failing to get people's support, Wagner group or Prigozhin pose no direct threat to Putin

By Harsh Thakor 

In recent weeks, a coup d’état in Russia staged by Yevgeny Prigozhin caused tremors all over the world. There appears nothing left of either the western aspirations of an ‘End of Putin’, nor the advances of some of the Russian authorities. The event was no real coup and it was never designed as such. What happened was a manifestation of a necessary struggle for Russian imperialism on the question of who leads the armed forces of Russia and of the establishment of a sole high command.
Prigozhin deployed every ounce of his energy against key figures of the High Command of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation: General Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of Defense and – primarily – General Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu, the Minister of Defense. It is those two who represent the Armed Forces and it is they who compulsively need to posess control over everything, to apply a strict centralisation of all resources of the state under one leadership, due to the war. Through the advent of the grave crisis of the ongoing war, the situation of the rule of the siloviki called inner circle, sharing joint power between several state entities like the armed forces and the secret services, has turned its benefits into disadvantages. It does not fit to this war and does not serve victory.
It danced to the tune for Russian imperialism that the Wagner mercenaries could act independently, when the need was a balance of power for this group around Putin. All political power springs out of the barrel of a gun with the army being the pivot of the state, not the secret service. That is the essence of the so-called rivalry between the contending forces.. Thus Prigozhin even after Putin labelled him a traitor and declared his liquidation, did not open his mouth against his old friend.
The whole ploy was a manifestation of Russian imperialism. Therefore Shoigu, in early June, made a move to bring all the mercenaries under the umbrella of the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin stated, “Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoigu”; “When we started participating in this war, no one said that we would be obliged to conclude agreements with the Ministry of Defence”; “None of the Wagner fighters is ready to go down the path of shame again. And so no one will sign contracts”.
Then Putin came to the fore taking side with Shoigu and the ministry: “This has to be done and it has to be done as quickly as possible,” Putin said “in line with common sense, with established practice and the law”.

Analysis

One should not negate the consequences that the incidents could invite, as well as the fatal general crisis Russian imperialism is submerging or the fact that they will definitely not be able to achieve a complete victory by conquering or demilitarizing Ukraine, as their stated goal. The outcome will be most probably, a frozen war, with some large Ukrainian territory in the south and east occupied by Russia. For now Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov have compromised a military conflict with an outstanding trained and well equipped mercenary troop at least in the size of a division on their home territory within only one day and without any mayor casualties on both sides. This cannot be analysed as a manifestation of weakness, but it has parallels to the development of the German Reich during the First World War: The Kaiser was on path of retreat while the OHL (Oberste Heeresleitung -High Command of the German Armed Forces), Hindenburg and Ludendorff, were gaining, because the war plundered too many resources for two heads. If Putin, Prigozhin Gerasimov and Shoigu are ousted, is out of question.
The failed general political line that could not suppress the people to stand up against their interests to advance losing the war – has crystallised the current situation. On the other hand, it is illustrated that it was Prigozhin’s desperate position and his bureaucratic ambitions under pressure from the Defense Ministry that motivated this mutiny.
Constructing a private army of such size as the “Wagner” PMC would have been impossible otherwise; Prigozhin, though he is a millionaire (if not a billionaire), definitely did not possess the resources to maintain all combat units on his own, the resources for which were granted to him directly by the monopolists. It was with the help of “Wagner” that Russian imperialists could fight for the capture of oil and gold mining sites without tarnishing the face of the Russian army and, therefore, operating much more flexibly. Military formation of the “Wagner” PMC demonstrates the fascist method of organizing The very existence of a private military army is completely prohibited in the constitution of the country. Thus, the Wagner is the modern equivalent of the fascist Freikorps formed in the Weimar Republic, but with the distinction t from the beginning “Wagner” is deployed as a weapon against Third World nations and not against communists.
The struggle between the two sides has features of absolute and primary nature, while the collusion is temporary and secondary. Both sides have adopted political positions that would pave way to make super-fast decisions and divert path depending on the specific impact of the situation. Putin, speaking about the mutiny, never mentioned Prigozhin by name, but simply threatened to punish “those” people who are responsible for organizing the mutiny. The same tactics were used by Prigozhin with regard to Putin. This alone manifested a possible resolution of the struggle through collusion. Nevertheless, the military actions of Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defence confirmed their determination to use violence. Never before has a government army air strike been launched within the borders of the country against a moving army column of a hostile faction in the middle of the day when there were civilian cars on the highway.
The lack of volunteers and the gigantic organizational problems that emerged even before the first failed offensive of forced mobilization in September meant it was imperative to recruit more people than were available. In order to accumulate the numbers of recruits they turned to prisons. The army of the Russian Federation could not afford to tarnish its “denazifying” and “orthodox” image with higher criminals as mercenaries, so was forced to adopt another organizational form. Still such an organization to undertake the most daunting military work was already there – the PMC “Wagner”. This structure already had trusted people and planted it’s work. All that was left to do was to reinstate their troops. Nevertheless, even after all this, the problem was still not completely solved, and more people were needed. In order to attract even more criminals, “Wagner” was provided another fascist benefit: at the end of the contract with the “Wagner”, the criminals, without trial, being released without completing the remainder of their prison terms.
Thus, the role and tasks of the “Wagner” PMC since the start of the war with Ukraine have expanded and now conduct not only dirty military operations in Africa and the Middle East, but also the recruitment of criminals for the needs of the front.
However, Prigozhin’s mysterious moves are not affecting the Russian movement, or the Russian masses. The Russian government will lie in the most derogatory ways that in fact everything was under control, that the dismantling of their power posed no peril to the lives of citizens and soldiers, that from the beginning the peaceful outcome was an inevitability. An objective analysis of the events of June 23rd and 24th shows that everything that could destabilised has gone out of control. All the leading fascists, their trusted bureaucrats and ideologues were shaken to the floor. They are making hasty and unprincipled change of positions, to cover up their mistakes. But the Russian imperialists will never be able to retract Putin’s words that a real mutiny is taking shape in the country which poses a mortal threat to the Russian nation and statehood.
No section of the army officer caste expressed support over Prigozhin and he did not receive any support from the population. The only real concrete result is that the Wagner group, and Prigozhin in particular, no more pose as a direct threat to Putin, which is what Putin’s objective. The Prigozhin adventure reveals is that there are deep cracks in the armour of the regime.

Conclusion

Both Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense endorse – the rotten old autocratic and monopolistic order, in which the people have no right to protest, let alone to strike. Prigozhin only pays lip service to “oligarchy” and says that he is working on behalf of the welfare of the people.
Neither of the two sides wants to end the war with Ukraine. Both sides of this conflict champion the prospects of Russia’s monopolistic capitalists, primarily oil and gas capitalists. Prigozhin, while condemning in form about the leadership, is in essence not being critical about the aggressive nature of this war, but only about the conditions that were placed before him as part of it. Both sides are waging a war of aggression to loot the Ukrainian national economy for the benefit of the Russian oligarchy – the Russian imperialists, which would pave way to enhance their strategic economic and military position in the fight against American imperialists for hegemony in the third world, particularly in Ukraine. Both are simply two sides of the fascist coin.
Thus, this situation is a personification of the incredibly sharp internal contradictions of the rotten Russian society, which is in a never ending crisis. On the economic level it is an incredible waste of resources for the Russian imperialists, which otherwise could have been used on the front lines. On the political level, it is a launching pad in the embryonic stage for the escalating struggle within the ranks of the imperialists themselves, which will lead to self –destruction on their own state with each passing day. On the ideological plan, it portrays of absence of principles, opportunism and disrespect for the people.
Contradictions have unfolded to the fore. Still democratic forces should combat such a scenario for Western imperialist countries to exploit and promote their expansionist interests or hegemony. Indirectly it has acted as a prop for Western Imperialism.
---
Harsh Thakor is a freelance journalist who studies world affairs .Thanks information from Russian Maoists and Red Herald

Comments

TRENDING

देशव्यापी ग्रामीण भारत बंध में उतरे मध्य प्रदेश के आदिवासी, किया केंद्र सरकार का विरोध

- हरसिंग जमरे, भिखला सोलंकी, रतन अलावे*  15 और 16 फरवरी को निमाड के बड़वानी, खरगोन और बुरहानपुर में जागृत आदिवासी दलित संगठन के नेतृत्व में आदिवासी महिला-पुरुषों ग्रामीण भारत बंद में रैली एवं विरोध प्रदर्शन किया । प्रधान मंत्री द्वारा 2014 में फसलों की लागत का डेढ़ गुना भाव देने का वादा किया गया था, 2016 में किसानों की आय दुगना करने का वादा किया गया था । आज, फसलों का दाम नहीं बढ़ रहा है, लेकिन खेती में खर्च बढ़ता जा रहा है! खाद, बीज और दवाइयों का दाम, तीन-चार गुना बढ़ चुका है! किसानों को लागत का डेढ़ गुना भाव देने के बजाए, खेती को कंपनियों के हवाले करने के लिए 3 काले कृषि कानून लाए गए । 3 काले कानून वापस लेते समय प्रधान मंत्री ने फिर वादा किया था कि फसलों की लागत का डेढ़ गुना भाव की कानूनी गारंटी के लिए कानून बनाएँगे, लेकिन वो भी झूठ निकला! आज जब देश के किसान दिल्ली में आपको अपना वादा याद दिलाने आए है, तब आप उनका रास्ता रोक रहें है, उनके साथ मारपीट कर उन पर आँसू गैस फेंक रहें हैं, उन पर छर्रों से फायरिंग कर रहें है! देश को खिलाने वाला किसान खुद भूखा रहे, क्या यही विकास है?

Only 15% businesses provide employees real-time sustainability dashboards: Study

Kyndryl in collaboration with Microsoft has released the findings of The Global Sustainability Barometer study. The study, conducted by Ecosystm, finds that while 85% of organizations place a high strategic level of importance on achieving their sustainability goals, only 16% have integrated sustainability into their strategies and data. A Kyndryl note: *** Kyndryl (NYSE: KD), the world’s largest IT infrastructure services provider, in collaboration with Microsoft , today released the findings of The Global Sustainability Barometer study. The study, conducted by Ecosystm , finds that while 85% of organizations place a high strategic level of importance on achieving their sustainability goals, only 16% have integrated sustainability into their strategies and data.

Tamil Nadu brahmins are at cross roads, their future scenario remains uncertain

By NS Venkataraman*  For over 70 years now, brahmin community in Tamil Nadu have been abused, insulted and even physically attacked on some occasions by those who claimed that they were part of the so called dravidian movement. However, brahmin community silently and helplessly ducked under pressure and showed no signs of resistance or fight back.

How the slogan Jai Bhim gained momentum as movement of popularity and revolution

By Dr Kapilendra Das*  India is an incomprehensible plural country loaded with diversities of religions, castes, cultures, languages, dialects, tribes, societies, costumes, etc. The Indians have good manners/etiquette (decent social conduct, gesture, courtesy, politeness) that build healthy relationships and take them ahead to life. In many parts of India, in many situations, and on formal occasions, it is common for people of India to express and exchange respect, greetings, and salutation for which we people usually use words and phrases like- Namaskar, Namaste, Pranam, Ram Ram, Jai Ram ji, Jai Sriram, Good morning, shubha sakal, Radhe Radhe, Jai Bajarangabali, Jai Gopal, Jai Jai, Supravat, Good night, Shuvaratri, Jai Bhole, Salaam walekam, Walekam salaam, Radhaswami, Namo Buddhaya, Jai Bhim, Hello, and so on.

नफरती बातें: मुसलमानों में असुरक्षा का भाव बढ़ रहा है, वे अपने मोहल्लों में सिमट रहे हैं

- राम पुनियानी*  भारत पर पिछले 10 सालों से हिन्दू राष्ट्रवादी भारतीय जनता पार्टी (भाजपा) राज कर रही है. भाजपा आरएसएस परिवार की सदस्य है और आरएसएस का लक्ष्य है हिन्दू राष्ट्र का निर्माण. आरएसएस से जुड़ी सैंकड़ों संस्थाएँ हैं. उसके लाखों, बल्कि शायद, करोड़ों स्वयंसेवक हैं. इसके अलावा कई हजार वरिष्ठ कार्यकर्ता हैं जिन्हें प्रचारक कहा जाता है. भाजपा के सत्ता में आने के बाद से आरएसएस दुगनी गति से हिन्दू राष्ट्र के निर्माण के अपने एजेण्डे को पूरा करने में जुट गया है. यदि भाजपा को चुनावों में लगातार सफलता हासिल हो रही है तो उसका कारण है देश में साम्प्रदायिकता और साम्प्रदायिक मुद्दों का बढ़ता बोलबाला. इनमें से कुछ हैं राम मंदिर, गौमांस और गोवध एवं लव जिहाद. 

Birth of New Communist Party ushers in new epoch in Canada's Left history

By Harsh Thakor  On January 31, 2024, history was made with the formation of the (New) Communist Party of Canada (the (N)CPC), the successful completion of its Founding Congress, and the public release of its Political Program. A most sporadic development in turning course of Communist movement locally, and worldwide. It also pits a challenge to dogmatism or mechanical approach and stagnation. taps the revolutionary creativity of the masses and is major re-orientation towards shaping revolutionary class struggles and  the massline.

Ethiopian ruling classes, political masters in West have their hands soaked in blood

By Harsh Thakor  Over two hundred were killed in recent weeks in Ethiopia’s Oromia and Amhara region. After peace-talks between the Oromo Liberation Army and the Ethiopian government did not materialise tensions are escalating in the Oromia region. Earlier, on November 22, least 25 civilians were massacred in a government aerial drone strike, in Chawaka districts of the Buno Bedelle zone. This incident took place only two days after a fierce battle arose between the OLA and governmental troops in the Sulula Fincha district of the Horro Guduru Wollega zone.

Landslide early warning system: Odisha Govt, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham collaborate

By Divya Saini  In a strategic move to mitigate the impact of landslides during storms, the Odisha government in collaboration with Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham is gearing up to establish a user-friendly Landslide Early Warning System (EWS) in Gajapati district. This initiative aims to provide advanced information, especially regarding landslides caused by disturbances in the natural stability of a slope.

Violent incidents in Haldwani: CPDRS on dubious role of Uttarakhand government

By DN Rath  Center for Democratic Rights and Secularism (CPDRS) unequivocally condemns the dubious role of Uttarakhand Government and its administration in the incidents that happened in Haldwani of Nanital district of the state.

A third view of Islamic paradox: Can Muslim unity defeat Zionist evil regime’s injustice?

By Chandra Vikash*  Could India, as a mirror to the ethno-federal One State solution, play a key role in resolving the Palestinian genocide crisis, that has emerged in the global consciousness as a focal point for injustice of centuries-old settler-colonialism project that continues to spread its hydra-headed tentacles through globalisation of this Old World Order?